Latest Mitchell Robinson Buzz Adds to Growing Knicks Uncertainty

Both pieces of intel make the Robinson dilemma truly double-sided. There's not only questions around how aggressively other teams will puruse him, but also how much New York values his services with financial constraints at play.

How much are the Knicks willing to pay Mitchell Robinson?

What is the Knicks’ cut-off number for Robinson? That's the key question and a major unknown.

As mentioned, Robinson just concluded a four-year, $60 million contract. Last season, Robinson made $12.9 million, making him the 27th highest-paid center.

Robinson is one of the more difficult players to put a price on; when he’s healthy, he is highly effective and can outplay many other starting centers. However, Robinson’s injury history limits how many games and minutes he can offer.

The Knicks load-managed Robinson all of last season to keep him healthy for the postseason. Robinson did make it through the playoffs and played well, but still only 4.8 points and 5.9 rebounds in 14 minutes per game.

Robinson’s greatest skill is his offensive rebounding. Last season, Robinson had an offensive rebounding rate of 23.9%, which was almost two percentage points higher than Steven Adams’ previous NBA record.

Coincidentally, Adams may be the best player to compare Robinson to — they are rim-running, paint-bound, defensive centers who grab offensive rebounds at historic rates and also have worrying injury histories. Adams signed a three-year, $39 million extension last summer, giving him an average of $13 million per season.

The NBA mid-level exception this season starts at $15 million per year and can pay a max of $65 million over four years. 

On the Knicks-focused “Katz and Shoot” podcast, The Athletic’s Fred Katz and Sam Vecenie both agreed that Robinson could at least command two years of the full mid-level. This would come out to around two years, $30 million.

At the time of this writing, the Knicks are about $18 million under the second apron with nine rostered players, not including Jose Alvarado’s $4.5 million player option for 2026-27 (per The Athletic’s James Edwards). If the Knicks refuse to go over the second apron, that’s five roster spots to fill and only $18 million to do it. It's enough money to bring back Robinson, but at what cost to the rest of the roster?

The Knicks could open up more room still by trading players like Pacôme Dadiet and Tyler Kolek without taking any money back. That would open up an additional $5.2 million. Trading Dadiet’s $2.9 million salary alone, while keeping Kolek and telling Alvarado to test the open market, would give the Knicks about $21 million in room below the second apron.

Perhaps Robinson would give the Knicks something of a hometown discount and return on say, a three-year, $42 million deal. That $14 million average gives him a slight edge on Adams and gives him some long-term security.

If the Knicks could move Dadiet and move on from Alvarado, they could re-sign Robinson to a deal starting at $14 million for next season and have about $6 million in space to re-sign Shamet. That figure seems like it would be on the low end of what Shamet could command, but perhaps a three-year, $18 million deal would entice Shamet to stay.

What’s the Knicks’ cut-off on Robinson? It seems—from afar—that they would be unlikely to go above $15 million per year for him. The Knicks will have to ask themselves if they can find a backup center who could make a similar impact to Robinson but at half the cost.

Of course, the Knicks could bring all of these players back if they’re willing to spend into the second apron. But if the second apron remains a hard no for them, it seems that the bench could see major changes this offseason.