Milwaukee Bucks 2025 NBA Cup East Group C predictions

Last year, the Bucks were the most dominant team in the NBA Cup. That wasn’t just during the knockout stage; they were also a force to be reckoned with during the group phase of play. They were grouped with the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, and Miami Heat — three teams that would end up making the playoffs — and won by a combined 36 points after starting things off with a 14-point victory over the Toronto Raptors.

That plus-50 point differential is the second-best in the history of the tournament, behind the champion of the inaugural year of the cup, the 2023-24 Los Angeles Lakers (+74). And while there is a chance the Bucks defend their crown, things may not be as easier as it was for them last year, not with the New York Knicks, another team that’s been consistent in NBA Cup play over the past two years, being grouped with them yet again like in 2023.

Joining the Bucks and the Knicks are three teams that will be battling for third place in the Heat, Chicago Bulls, and Charlotte Hornets.

Bucks game-by-game predictions for 2025 NBA Cup

Game 1: Bucks vs. Bulls, November 7 at 8:00 PM E.T.

For some reason, the Bulls have given the Bucks fits over the past few seasons. Chicago has won five of their past 12 meetings, and considering how Milwaukee has had championship aspirations during that span and the Bulls have none, playing them to almost a deadlock is a major feather in their cap.

Last year, the Bulls took two victories over the Bucks — a 133-122 win in October 25, and a 116-111 victory in December 28. Suffice to say, the Bucks cannot take the Bulls lightly in any capacity.

Even then, it’s not like the Bulls made any upgrades to their roster. They are running back the same core; their biggest offseason addition thus far has been Isaac Okoro, someone who hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire during his first five seasons with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Moreover, the Bulls won’t have Zach LaVine anymore for this game against the Bucks (they had him in all four meetings last year). In fact, in one of the games Chicago won, Antetokounmpo wasn’t available. In two games against the Bulls last year, Antetokounmpo recorded 39.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per contest on an absolutely bonkers 68.1 field goal percentage.

Simply put, the Bucks should decisively be able to take care of business especially with the game being at home.

Prediction: Bucks win by double digits

Game 2: Bucks vs. Hornets, November 14 at 8:00 PM E.T.

The Hornets may not be as big of a pushover next season as they were last year; Brandon Miller is going to be back from injury, and LaMelo Ball will be raring to shed the injury-prone label he’s been slowly building up for himself. Moreover, they added to their young core further with Kon Knueppel and Liam McNeeley, and they did bring in Collin Sexton as another high-energy player to deploy in the backcourt (along with Tre Mann).

But the Hornets should be a cakewalk for the Bucks regardless. Antetokounmpo will demolish this Hornets team that is currently slated to start Mason Plumlee at the five and Miles Bridges at the four. Rim protection is going to be non-existent for this Charlotte squad and Antetokounmpo is going to tear this team a new one.

Prediction: Bucks win by double digits

Game 3: Bucks @ Heat, November 26 at 7:30 PM E.T.

At the very least, this matchup will be the exact opposite of the Hornets one for the Bucks. The Heat have one of the best Antetokounmpo defenders in the league in Bam Adebayo, whom they are partnering with another burgeoning presence in the paint in Kel’el Ware.

The Bucks’ 4-0 sweep of the Heat during last year’s regular season is not going to be indicative at all of this upcoming matchup. Miami did add Norman Powell to give their ailing offense a boost, and they can lean on a bruising, physical identity while scraping by on the offensive end with Tyler Herro leading the way alongside Powell and Andrew Wiggins.

With the game being on the road, Milwaukee is going to be tested. But at the end of the day, the Bucks will win by a slim margin, which will be enough to set up a decisive fourth game against the New York Knicks.

Prediction: Bucks win close game

Game 4: Bucks @ Knicks, November 28 at 7:30 PM E.T.

The Bucks have been perfect in group stage play across two seasons of the NBA Cup. In 2023, they defeated the Knicks in their very first game of the in-season tournament, 110-105, and they followed that up with a dominant 146-122 victory in the quarterfinals.

However, Lillard is no longer part of the roster, and he averaged 28 points across 12 NBA Cup games for his career. That is going to be tough to replace for the Bucks. Antetokounmpo is going to have to shoulder a larger offensive load, and the Knicks will be better prepared to contain him, with New York having Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby on the perimeter and Mitchell Robinson to help cover the paint.

Cole Anthony and Kevin Porter Jr. will have difficulties replacing the guard play Lillard gave the Bucks. Turner, who did well against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals this past May, is not going to be moving the needle much in this matchup regardless.

It will be a wonder as to who the Bucks will deploy to contain Jalen Brunson. Their perimeter defense is very uninspiring, and Brunson is going to have a field day against this soft perimeter defense Milwaukee is about to deploy next season.

Last year, the Knicks swept the Bucks convincingly, and they even upgraded their roster over the offseason, adding Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele to bolster their depth that was very much lacking last year. New York won all three games against Milwaukee last year, and they destroyed them both times in Madison Square Garden, winning by a combined margin of 56 points (116-94, 140-106).

As talented as Antetokounmpo is, the Knicks will simply have the deeper, better-constructed, and more talented team. The Bucks have almost always brought their A-game during cup nights, but their win streak in the competition will finally be coming to an end.

Prediction: Bucks lose by double digits, bow out of NBA Cup contention due to point differential