NBA best bets: Picks against spread, total prediction, player props, odds for 3/31  

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets

Sunday, March 31, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Cavaliers +5 (-115, DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Nuggets look tired. Michael Porter Jr. emphasized postgame after the Suns loss that their biggest priority right now is health. They know how important it is to get through the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs healthy, which is why I expect Jamal Murray (knee) to miss his fifth-straight game despite just a questionable tag.

The Nuggets are 11-9 without Murray this season, but they’ve underperformed relative to the market at just 7-13 against the spread (ATS). We’ve seen the Nuggets weather the initial storm when Murray sits, but when he’s out for an extended period, we see the cracks show.

Murray has missed 20 games on six separate occasions, and the Nuggets have done well in their first games without him, going 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS. If we remove those first games without him though, the Nuggets are just 3-11 ATS in games without Murray.

With Nikola Jokic popping up on the injury report as probable (wrist), there's also an outside chance he sits. That makes the Cavaliers live dogs in this contest, so I'll sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.

Pick: Cavaliers +5 (-115)

Lakers vs. Nets

Sunday, March 31, 6 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Lakers -6 (-110, FanDuel)

By Michael Arinze

The Lakers are coming off one of their lackluster performances, losing 109-90 on the road against the Pacers. It was just the third loss for Los Angeles in its last 10 games, snapping a season-best five-game winning streak.

Thus, the Lakers have been playing better overall of late. Next up for them is a visit to Brooklyn to face the Nets on Sunday.

It’s worth noting that the Lakers are also looking to split the season series after a 130-112 loss at home in January.

As a result, this matchup features not only a revenge angle but also a Lakers team coming off a double-digit loss.

According to our Action Labs database, the Lakers are 6-2 against the spread on the road when coming off a loss of 19 or more points while facing an opponent they lost to by 18 or more points.

Lastly, Los Angeles is a perfect 3-0 this season against the spread on the road after losing by 19 or more points.

The Lakers remain one of the more dangerous teams in the league, and their overall body of work warrants support as a six-point road favorite.

Pick: Lakers -6 (-110)

Lakers vs. Nets

LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds (-106, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Lakers face off against the Nets and one player to target is LeBron James.

LeBron has been crashing the boards all season, averaging 7.3 rebounds per game. However, he’s seen a spike of late, considering he's up to 8.9 per game over his last 10 outings.

This matchup against the Nets is advantageous. They’re slightly undersized and a bit susceptible to the Lakers’ propensity to play bully-ball. In the one game LeBron played against Brooklyn this season, he secured 11 boards.

Additionally, the Nets rank 22nd in rebound% — and while they play a bit slower, the Lakers’ should be able to dictate the pace and tempo of this game.

LeBron has exceeded this line in seven of his last 10 games, with four of those performances eclipsing double digit boards.

I like the King to show out on Sunday.

Pick: LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds (-106)

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Heat vs. Wizards

Sunday, March 31, 6 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Made Three Pointers (+275, BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Right back to it.

Played this on Friday when it was +300 or better, and Bam Adebayo hit two threes on three attempts from beyond the arc.

The price has dropped to +26o today, and it's still a line that's exploitable so long as Adebayo remains on a tear.

Adebayo began shooting the occasional three more often, and it's become a regular occurrence over the last several games.

Adebayo has made at least one three in seven of his last eight games. As long as he's taking them and priced in and around this number, it's a shot worth taking.

Plus, this is a revenge spot for the Heat, who lost to the Wizards at home earlier this month. The potential of the game getting out of hand could mean more attempts from deep.

Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Made Three Pointers (+275)

Thunder vs. Knicks

Sunday, March 31, 7 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Under 216.5 (-110, DraftKings)

By Bruce Marshall

Those strong Knicks under trends we saw for a couple of months have waned a bit in the past two weeks as New York has now seen the total go over three straight games, and five of their last six.

But their schedule has played a huge role in the change, as three straight deeply subpar sides (Pistons, Raps, Spurs) have contributed to higher-scoring games for the Knicks.

Oklahoma City is playoff-bound and fighting for the top seed in the West, so the Thunder play a little defense themselves, and could be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander again on Sunday.

Take the under.

Pick: Under 216.5 (-110)

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Bulls vs. Timberwolves

Sunday, March 31, 7 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 Rebounds (-135, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

It might not be Good Friday but it certainly is a good day to fry, because Rudy Gobert absolutely dominates in this matchup against Nikola Vucevic.

Since Gobert has been Gobert, he has never recorded fewer than 13 rebounds against Vucevic. He has averaged a preposterous 16.5 rebounds in 13 head-to-head matchups against him since 2016.

On the Wolves, he’s recorded 16 and 19 rebounds against Vucevic, and since Vucevic joined the Bulls, Gobert is averaging a whopping 17.4 boards against him with totals of 16, 19, 20, 19, and 13.

Last time out, the Bulls tried to run the double-big lineup with Vucevic and Drummond, and it still didn’t stop Gobert, who pulled down 16 boards on 29 chances and that was with both Naz Reid and Karl-Anthony Towns in the lineup.

Couple this history with the fact that KAT is out and Rudy is averaging 14.3 rebounds per game in nine contests without him this season, while exceeding this line in six of those nine games, and this is an excellent spot.

It’s Easter Sunday, but this prop should actually be the national holiday.

I’m grabbing Gobert to exceed 13.5 rebounds and laddering it all the way up to 20+ (+800, PointsBet)

Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 Rebounds (-135)

Warriors vs. Spurs

Sunday, March 31, 7 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Warriors -8.5 (-110, Bet365)

By Vince Akins

Golden State has been dominating on the road of late. While the Spurs have played well the last week, they are facing a different kind of team in the Warriors that are super hungry for these wins.

Golden State is a strong road favorite in this game, and this is a big line considering San Antonio has won three straight games. Teams that are more than six-point underdogs when they are on 3+ game winning streaks are 378-502 ATS.

And the Spurs were dogs in all three of those games. Home dogs that have won as dogs in each of their last two games are 171-206 ATS.

San Antonio is coming off an overtime win over the Knicks. The Spurs were 8.5-point dogs in that game as well. San Antonio held a 17-point halftime lead in that game, and led by as many as 21 points. Teams coming off an overtime win where they led by 20+ points are 18-40 ATS.

The Spurs shot 44-of-82 from the field, and Victor Wembanyama scored 40 points in their most recent win — his season-high and the most by any member of the Spurs this season. I wouldn't count on an encore performance from San Antonio tonight.

Pick: Warriors -8.5 (-110)