NBA Draft Lottery conspiracy theories don't make sense

The NBA Draft lottery has led to conspiracy theories since it began in 1985, when the New York Knicks got the top pick and the right to draft college superstar Patrick Ewing. Mavericks CEO Rick Welts alluded to that event and the unending speculation that the NBA wanted to steer Ewing to the big-market Knicks ever since, having worked in the league office at the time.

But most of the theories about how and why the NBA supposedly "rigs" the lottery break down under scrutiny. If the NBA is putting its finger on the scale in favor of the Knicks, why hasn't New York moved up in the draft even once in their next 18 trips to the lottery?

For the NBA to have rigged the draft lottery to send Cooper Flagg to the Mavericks, ostensibly as a quid pro quo for Dallas sending Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers, it requires an unbelievable set of events. Anthony Davis had to get injured immediately, and Kyrie Irving had to tear his ACL for the Mavericks to fall into the play-in tournament. The Mavericks then had to win a coin flip with the Chicago Bulls to end up in 11th place instead of 12th.

But these theories also miss the reason for everyone involved—the accounting firm supervising the draw, the NBA team observers and the media members in the drawing room—to participate. Why would the other NBA teams go along with it? Why would reporters?

Besides, the outcomes of many other lotteries rumored to be "rigged" haven't necessarily helped the NBA. Did Davis and Zion Williamson ending up in New Orleans really aid the league as a whole? 

The easiest explanation is the simplest one. The Mavericks made an unpopular trade. Then they got lucky in the lottery — a 1.8 percent chance at the top pick is unlikely, but not wildly so. Fans might be disappointed to see Flagg going to the Mavericks, but that doesn't mean anything sketchy made it happen.