NBA Finals betting: Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3 odds, picks, prediction for Wed. 6/12

Celtics vs. Mavericks Odds

Wednesday, June 12, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Obviously, Porzingis' status will be important to Game 3 handicapping and will be monitored, but there's a few angles I like regardless of Porzingis' availability.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics put their stamp on the series in Game 2 with an impressive victory, despite some massive struggles from distance. Boston shot just 10-for-39 from beyond the arc (25.6%), but it was the Celtics' defense that really carried them. Six of Dallas' 15 turnovers came by way of Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, who each had three steals, to go with 21 and 18 points.

Despite the shooting woes, the offense still worked because of Jayson Tatum. His ability to facilitate is the true x-factor for this team. The Celtics are 33-11 when Tatum has five or more assists in a playoff game since 2022. When he has four or fewer, they’re just 6-10. Tatum continues to lead the series in Potential Assists (13.5) and is averaging 8.5 assists per game, yet his assists line is still only set at a juiced 5.5 — same as it was in Games 1 and 2. I see no reason to stray from a bet on his playmaking in Game 3.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks need to make some adjustments, and fast. Part of the problem is that this is a bad matchup for Kyrie Irving and Jason Kidd hasn’t found anything to combat that fact. White and Jrue Holiday have traded defensive responsibilities on Irving and have had good results. Holiday is the better one-on-one defender of the two, but White has held his own against Irving. Even when Tatum or Al Horford gets switched onto Irving, they’ve been effective at staying in front of him without fouling. Irving has just two free-throw attempts in the Finals! I’ve been on the under for Irving's points prop in both games this series, but I’ll probably stay away for Game 3 at home.

Someone I like to go over their points prop is P.J. Washington. I bet him to exceed 1.5 3s in Game 2 and he went 1-for-5 from beyond the arc. I assumed the Mavericks would make a concerted effort to shoot more 3s in Game 2 (in my defense, Washington was responsible for nearly 20% of Dallas’ attempts), but they followed up Game 1, where they shot their second-fewest 3-point attempts of the season (27), with even fewer in Game 2 (26).

Celtics vs. Mavericks

Betting Pick & Prediction

We could look at what happened in Game 2 in two ways.

Option 1: The Mavericks were within striking distance on the road, despite an underwhelming scoring performances from their second-best player, Irving.

Option 2: The Celtics — the best 3-point shooting team in the league — survived a terrible shooting game and still won by seven.

I tend to see it as the latter. It’s hard to see the adjustments for Dallas, but this is a good trend spot for the Mavericks — at least in the first half. Home teams down 0-2 in Game 3 are 65-35-1 ATS in the first half since the 2005 season, according to Bet Labs. We’ve seen the Mavericks climb out of early first-half deficits throughout the playoffs, but it’s different against a Boston team that has counters for most of the adjustments the Mavericks can make. Dallas will need to come out firing in the first half if it wants to take Game 2 at home.

If Porzingis is out, I like Dallas -1.5, but by the time we know, that number will likely be gone. The first-half look is my favorite angle here and I’ll go ahead and bet that now since I like it with Porzingis in or out.

I’ll also add a few of the player props I touched on earlier. Washington Over 14.5 points at +100 is good value. Dallas needs contributions from its role players and Washington is a step above a role player. He’s also exceeded this in 10-of-14 games in his career against Boston, including all three this season.

I’ll also run back the Tatum Over 15.5 rebounds + assists. He’s averaging 16.6 rebounds + assists in the playoffs, including 18.5 in the NBA Finals on 27 rebound chances + potential assists per game.

Finally, I’ll tail my Action Network colleague, Jim Turvey, on a fourth quarter under. Boston fourth quarter unders are 64-33-1 in the playoffs and regular season combined and have a 29.22% ROI on the road. The under is 12-4 in the playoffs and has hit in both games of the NBA Finals. I’ll run that back with Turvey for Game 3. You can find him in the Action app and on Twitter @TurveyBets.

Picks: Mavericks 1H -2 (.75u) | P.J. Washington Over 14.5 Points (.35u) | Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (.35u) | 4Q Under 51.5 (.35u)