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Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

NBA Futures: MVP Award has lots of great candidates

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 10/3/22

The NBA Most Valuable Player is truly an award where you have to be the best of the best to win. There are very few flashes in the pan the way that sports like baseball produce them.

Even though that narrows the field quite a bit there are still a number of worthwhile candidates across the league coming into this season.

I suppose you have to start with the two-time defending MVP Nikola Jokic. His skills are at their peak, but he might be fighting history and opportunity this season. There have been lots of back-to-back winners of the award, but nobody has won it three times in a row since Wilt Chamberlain. With a healthier supporting cast, there might be fewer reasons to reward him too, unless Denver goes nuclear this season (which I think is possible).

Giannis Antetokoumnpo won the award the two years before Jokic and is definitely going to be in the conversation again this season. Similar to Jokic there might be a little fatigue there, but the Bucks are a great bet to be the best team in the Eastern Conference and Giannis' stats are always monstrous.

When it comes to picking an MVP future I recommend a stack approach. Luka Doncic is at the top of the table at +450 so even if you stack him with another option or two on top you can still come in with a positive payoff, and you increase your odds. Picking one guy is not much fun (especially if he gets hurt).

Here are some thoughts on the top players from the odds table and a couple of longshot plays to consider.

NBA MVP Futures

Luka Doncic +450
He is going to win one of these at some point, probably more than one. This does not feel like the year though after a deeper playoff, run, EuroBasket, and a lighter roster. Dallas might not be much better than .500 this season which will hurt his candidacy.

Giannis Antetokoumnpo +700
The Greek Freak is always going to be in the running. There could be a little fatigue with him but beyond that, it is an easy sell. He is the most complete player in the league right now.

Joel Embiid +700
This one is part player, part team. If you like the 76ers a lot coming into the year this is a play to make, too. Embiid led the league in scoring last season and played his most games ever. It is all about health for the big man. Plus he has the bump of not winning it before.

Nikola Jokic +1000
I am high on the Nuggets having a really great regular season. It is hard to dismiss a player just because he has won it before but Giannis, Curry and LeBron could not complete their three-peats, so it is kind of a real thing. He has to be better than ever and that is a tall ask.

Kevin Durant +1000
Durant has won the award before, back in his OKC days. Given his offseason, I think he needs to be head and shoulders above the field to get proper consideration. He also needs to be healthier. He has yet to play 60 games in a season with Brooklyn.

Ja Morant +1300
Morant missed time last year too but posted his best season ever and the Grizzlies won a lot. If he does it again it might be time to give the award to one of the most dynamic players in the league. Especially because their depth is down this season.

Jayson Tatum +1300
Boston is messy right now. They are probably not going to fall off the map but it is going to be hard to give the award to a Celtic if the team feels worse than they did a year ago. He would have to lead the league in scoring or something.

Steph Curry +1500
Curry is another two-time winner of the award, back when Golden State was just starting its run. He is aging well but it is hard to see him getting back to the top of this podium. Not because of decline, but due to opportunity.

LeBron James +2700
The Lakers are the only team that LeBron has not won an MVP award with. I have zero expectations about the team but if they are playoff worthy he might get some votes. That price for the King is a great value.

Kawhi Leonard +2700
The ultimate "all about health" candidate, coming off a season in which he did not play a game. More than the Lakers, the Clippers are expected to be good this season. When he is right he is only behind Giannis in terms of overall impact.

Outside the Top Ten

Zion Williamson +3000
Williamson makes the most wow plays this side of Morant. He did not play a year ago but finds himself in a better situation than the last time we saw him on the floor. Plus his addition to the mix can be truly considered the reason for better team success. A great narrative.

Damian Lillard +6500
Lillard is coming off a season where he missed more games than he ever had. The Blazers looked poised to return to the playoffs this season. That and a scoring title might get him a lifetime achievement vote.

Cade Cunningham +49000
This is the major longshot of the group. I really like the moves the Pistons made this offseason so give Cunningham more to work with. I can see a scenario where Detroit makes the playoffs and Cunningham is top three in the league in assists. That will get some votes.