NBA same-game parlay: A +425 bet for Mavs vs. T-Wolves Game 1 Wed. 5/22

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 1 Same-Game Parlay

1. Dallas Mavericks +4.5
2. Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points
3. Mike Conley Under 6.5 Assists

Parlay Odds: +425

Dallas Mavericks

+4.5 vs. Timberwolves (Bet365)

When two of our experts are on the same play, that only gives me more confidence in wanting to use it for a leg in a same-game parlay. Both Bryan Fonseca and Andrew O’Connor-Watts are on the Mavericks tonight to cover the spread with similar reasoning:

Fonseca: “Game 1 feels like a letdown spot for the Timberwolves. And given the sheer physicality of the Wolves' last series, I'd lean Dallas to win outright. I think Dallas is more live in this series than people realize.”

O'Connor-Watts: “Teams coming off a Game 7 are just 34-54 ATS (38.6%) in Game 1 of the following series since 1988. I think Dallas has the lineup versatility to challenge a potentially tired Minnesota team, and I like the Mavericks +4.5 and a sprinkle on the moneyline to win a half-unit.”

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Luka Doncic

Over 28.5 Points (Bet365)

Despite making it again to the Western Conference Finals, a lot of criticism still falls on Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic. The topics may range from his health, his shot selection or even his treatment of officials.

Despite the critiques, Joe Dellera isn’t buying it and instead is banking on Doncic to come up big in Game 1 tonight:

“Overall, Doncic has averaged 32.9 points per game, but he's had some difficulty in the playoffs, scoring just 27.3 a night.

"Much of this was due to matchups, though. The Clippers could throw a mix of Kawhi Leonard and Terance Mann at him, while Oklahoma City deployed Lu Dort. The Timberwolves also have elite wing defenders, such as Jaden McDaniels, who I expect to start on Doncic. Ultimately, Doncic's size should give him the edge.

“Also, Luka was seemingly dealing with a knee injury throughout the Oklahoma City series but got into his stride to finish the series with 31- and 29-point performances. I’ll grab Luka to exceed 28.5 points, especially with him playing on extra rest.”

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Mike Conley

Under 6.5 Assists  (Bet365)

Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley has been the steadying presence for the T-Wolves this season. Despite the 36-year-old missing some time last round to the Nuggets, he still managed to play 39 minutes in a winner-take-all Game 7.

While Conley will still be counted on to initiate the Timberwolves offense, Alex Hinton thinks we need to fade his assists prop for Game 1:

“Conley averaged 4.8 dimes in the four regular-season meetings against Dallas, reaching seven assists just once.”

“He also has had seven assists in just one of his last five playoff games. In his most recent outings, Conley recorded just five assists in Game 6 against Denver and four assists in Game 7.

“In the playoffs, the Mavericks are allowing only 103.2 points per game, ranking fifth in scoring defense and sixth in defensive rating. Tonight's total comes in at just 207.5 points, which suggests Conley may not have many potential assists.”

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Disclaimer: Parlays have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to betting each leg of the same-game parlay on its own. Those percentages only decrease with the more legs you add to the parlay. Keep your expectations in check, and please bet on these responsibly for recreation.