Ten best bets: NBA odds, expert picks, player props and predictions for Mavs vs. Wolves for Wed. 5/22

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

Wednesday, May 22, 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Mavericks +4.5 (DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Wolves are coming off a hard-fought seven-game series against the defending champion Denver Nuggets. Their stock couldn’t be higher.

But this is actually a great spot to fade the trendy Wolves and back the Mavericks, who closed out their previous series in six games against the No. 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder.

Former Action Network writer Raheem Palmer found a great trend to fade teams in Game 1 after coming off a Game 7 in their previous series. Teams coming off a Game 7 are just 34-54 in Game 1 of the following series since 1988.

I think Dallas has the lineup versatility to challenge a potentially tired Minnesota team, and I like the Mavericks +4.5 and a sprinkle on the moneyline to win a half-unit.

Mavericks +4.5

By Bryan Fonseca

Action Network tweeted on May 7 that "teams coming off a Game 7 facing a team that did not go seven games are 16-29-1 ATS in Game 1 over the last 20 years."

That was prior to the Cleveland Cavaliers — 12.5-point underdogs — getting blown out by the Boston Celtics, 120-95, in Game 1 of their series.

This is being written before Celtics vs. Pacers Game 1 on Tuesday night, but a bunch of us jumped on the Celtics in that -9.5, -10 territory.

So, the updated number is now 16-30-1 ATS with that Cavs loss.

Game 1 feels like a letdown spot for the Timberwolves. And given the sheer physicality of the Wolves' last series, I'd lean Dallas to win outright.

I think Dallas is more live in this series than people realize.

Pick: Mavericks +4.5

Over 207.5

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

This is a surprising over for me, but I feel confident in the play.

Despite the Wolves' excellent defense — and they put on a masterclass in the second half of Game 7 — they’ve been inconsistent, and they’re coming off a seven-game series.

I expect their defense to falter against Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

The Dallas defense has also been excellent, but it's been the fifth-fastest team in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats, despite Luka’s proclivity to slow the pace down in the half-court.

A product of the Mavs' savvy defense has been transition buckets.

I think the Mavs win a high scoring one relative to the low-posted total.

Pick: Over 207.5

Dallas to Win Game 1 / Wolves to Win Series +500

By Bryan Fonseca

Our metrics lean towards Dallas covering Game 1 (if not possibly winning straight up), and given that the Wolves just went seven games with the Nuggets, why not?

The Mavericks will have the rest advantage and are 4-2 on the road in the playoffs. Minnesota is just 3-2 at home and was 1-2 in the Denver series.

Doncic is somewhat of a playoff road warrior, Irving is generally as unfazed as you'd want a guard to be in the playoffs and Dallas' defense is, at worst, legit.

This series profiles as a six or seven gamer, and this bet is my favorite long shot on the board.

Pick: Dallas to Win Game 1 / Wolves to Win Series +500

Over 5.5 Games in Series (-175)

By Bryan Fonseca

You'd want more value, sure, but this series should be a long one.

Neither side is overwhelming enough to warrant confidence in a short series in their favor.

Neither team is injured to the point of no return going into the series.

And no team has the profile to have our definitive trust in all moments going forward.

Minnesota arguably toppled the one team in the playoff that did, but even Denver's regular season profile wasn't to the level of last season. And in hindsight, more questions should've been asked (amongst casual observers and on the TV shows) about the Nuggets' depth.

Barring injuries, I just don't think this ends in five. The Wolves are great defensively but have their offensive shortcomings. The Mavericks can guard to a higher apex than the Nuggets, and their offense isn't always fluid either.

Can P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. continue to shoot 3s? Will Karl-Anthony Towns revert to his initial playoff self? Will Doncic have his way in the pick-and-roll? Will the Wolves neutralize Irving's scoring like OKC did?

There are too many questions that will need games of problem solving. Give me the over.

Pick: Over 5.5 Games in Series (-175)

Mavs 1Q ML +120

By Michael Fiddle

The Wolves are a team that starts slow and dominates in fourth quarters. They also come into this game with a rest disadvantage, and this is a potential early letdown spot after the biggest win in franchise history.

On the opposite side, the Mavericks have been starting strong recently, crushing the Thunder in first quarters of their last series.

The change for Dallas has been a 1-to-2 minute uptick in early playing time for Kyrie.

If they're extending Kyrie a bit more, take Dallas 1Q ML.

Kyrie Irving to Score 30+ Points

By Maltman

Minnesota's base defense against Kyrie will likely be to let the Mavs set picks with whoever Rudy Gobert is guarding and have the center drop and hope to get over the screen.

This is what they've done in the past against Kyrie and what they did against Jamal Murray at the end of the last series. Aside from Game 7, Murray couldn’t really make the Wolves pay.

Kyrie, on the other hand, can. They also may start with Mike Conley on him — a matchup Kyrie could cook — since there isn’t a great Conley hiding spot.

Kyrie has 30+ in his last three games against Minnesota. He's been boom-or-bust in these playoffs, scoring 30+ three times and 23 or fewer in the other nine games.

At +500, this is worth a sprinkle. I'm betting .25u on Irving to have 30+ points at +500 on FanDuel (I would bet it down to +425).

For a bonus, the last two times Kyrie, Luka and Anthony Edwards all played in a Dallas/Minnesota game, they each had 30+. The playoffs are a different animal, but I think this series is very unpredictable, and I wouldn’t be shocked if all three did it again.

I'm adding .05u on each to have 30+ at +2612 on FanDuel.

Pick: Kyrie Irving to Score 30+ Points

Luka Doncic Over 6.5 1Q Points

By Braxton Reynolds

Doncic has reached seven first-quarter points in 10-of-12 games this postseason, and he's accomplished the feat in 4-of-5 matchups against Minnesota since the Gobert trade.

The Wolves shut down paint attempts this season, but opponents were able to exploit the mid-range. Doncic possesses an excellent in-between game, and his tendency to launch from deep off-the-dribble also adds plenty of upside.

Finally, he's superb at drawing contact, and Minnesota has given up a large free-throw attempt rate all season.

Doncic looked relatively healthy in Game 6 against Oklahoma City, and he enters this contest with three full days of rest. Look for him to be aggressive early.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 6.5 1Q Points

Luka Doncic Leading Scorer +115

By Michael Fiddle

Jaden McDaniels is a great defender, and it showed against the smaller Jamal Murray. Luka is just so much bigger, and he uses his size with such an elite craft.

I'm looking to play Luka points overs because I think he's going to be able to create a lot for himself, and the length of the Wolves may cause problems for the surrounding players.

Considering the low game total and vig prices on other bets, I considered Luka Over 28.5 at -110, over 30 at +110 and leading scorer at +115.

Give me the highest payment in a threshold he can still hit scoring only 27 if this game is a sub-200 total.

Pick: Luka Doncic Leading Scorer +115

Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points

By Joe Dellera

I’m targeting Doncic to have a big game.

Luka’s points prop is set at 28.5, a number he's crushed this season. Overall, Luka has averaged 32.9 points per game, but he's had some difficulty in the playoffs, scoring just 27.3 a night.

Much of this was due to matchups, though. The Clippers could throw a mix of Kawhi Leonard and Terance Mann at him, while Oklahoma City deployed Lu Dort.

While the Timberwolves have elite wing defenders — such as McDaniels (who I expect to start of Luka) — Luka’s size should give him the edge.

Also, Luka was seemingly dealing with a knee injury throughout the Oklahoma City series but got into his stride to finish the series with 31- and 29-point performances.

Here, I think Minnesota has better options to defend everyone else on the Mavericks, with Ant on Kyrie and Gobert clogging up the interior.

Minnesota’s defense is elite, but Luka is a tough cover due to his skill.

I’ll grab Luka to exceed 28.5 points, especially with him playing on extra rest.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points