NBA’s Lottery Reform Plan Includes 16 Teams, Flattened Odds

Major reforms to the draft lottery system could be on the horizon next year.

The NBA has disclosed to its 30 GMs a new anti-tanking, draft reform termed the “3-2-1 lottery” that includes expanding the lottery to 16 teams, flattened odds and a “relegation zone” where the bottom three teams will be penalized with fewer lottery balls for the No. 1 pick, ESPN’s Shams Charania reports. If passed during the league’s Board of Governors meeting on May 28, the new system would be in place in 2027.

Here’s some of the key elements to the “3-2-1” proposal, named to represent the number of lottery balls per team, according to Charania and The Athletic’s Sam Amick:

• Teams that do not qualify for the playoffs or play-in tournament but stay out of the relegation zone (the team that finish with the fourth-worst record through the 10th-worst record) would receive three lottery balls each. Teams with a bottom-three record — the relegation area — would have just two lottery balls but have a floor of the 12th pick, while the rest of the 13 lottery teams could fall as far as the 16th pick.
• The 9th and 10th play-in seeds in each conference receive two lottery balls each, while the losers of the 7-8 play-in games receive one lottery ball each.
• No team would be able to win the top pick in consecutive years or be able to have three consecutive top-five picks.
• Trade rules would also be impacted. Teams would not be able to protect picks in the 12 to 15 slots going forward.
• The proposal includes a sunset provision, with the new system expiring following the 2029 draft and requiring an affirmative vote of the Board of Governors to either continue with the system or transition to a new one.
• The league would have expanded disciplinary authority to regulate tanking by having the option to reduce teams’ lottery odds and/or modify teams’ draft positions.

Commissioner Adam Silver, who has been pushing hard for a revised lottery system, initially offered a variety of proposals to address tanking. The league office has held multiple critical meetings with its Board of Governors, competition committee and 30 GMs over the last few weeks to narrow toward this new singular proposal ahead of the owners’ vote. There could be minor modifications to the proposal, but the key points of the framework have a majority of the support from teams, sources told Charania.