
Nike’s standing in basketball has been tested before, but a recent UBS analyst report has put the pressure in sharper focus.
The report asserts declining player popularity as the reason behind falling basketball shoe sales for the brand, a finding that ESPN analyst Brian Windhorst highlighted during a recent appearance on Hoops Tonight with Jason Timpf.
“Nike’s revenue has been really down, and Nike’s stock has been obliterated over the last 18 to 24 months,” Windhorst said. “And this analyst at UBS… by the way, the analyst at UBS doesn’t care. They’re not trying to go viral. They’re writing to their investors. And they basically said that part of the reason that Nike is selling fewer basketball shoes is that basketball players aren’t as popular as they used to be.”
Windhorst stressed the weight of that assessment, saying, “That is the reason worth paying attention to, because that’s an independent arbiter who only cares about the data. And that’s science, too. But Nike can look at it and say, ‘This is a problem. Our stock is down. Our revenue is down. We got a problem here.’ The NBA is like, ‘Our stock is up enormously. Our revenue is up enormously. Don’t tell us about a problem.’”
NBA reporter Brian Windhorst gives his take on the Nike stock collapse: "Nike shoe sales are tanking because NBA players aren’t as popular as they used to be."
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Having said that, the numbers behind that concern are stark, as Nike’s market cap, which hit roughly $281 billion in 2021, has since dropped to under $70 billion. Furthermore, its stock peaked at $155.3 that same year and fell to $42.6 earlier this month.
The brand currently sponsors around 75% of NBA players through the Nike or the Jordan Brand subsidiary, giving it more exposure to the league’s commercial fortunes than any other partner. That being said, the sales decline does not exist in isolation, as a UBS analyst pointed to a particular strategic drift by the brand as a compounding factor.
Per UBS softlines analyst Jay Sole, Nike has long maintained an internal policy capping its sportswear share at 30%, designed to protect its identity as a performance brand.
However, over the past five years, Sole argues, the discipline eroded as the company leaned more into fashion.
Customers who came for trends, he noted, had no deep loyalty to the brand when those trends moved on.
“We believe that for Nike, the fashion trend has moved away from them, and now many customers have moved on to other brands because they were never consumers of Nike sports products,” Jay Sole said.
Having said that, his prescription is a return to the 30% sportswear ceiling and a renewed focus on performance.
And there are early signs of a response from within. On April 10, Apple CEO and Nike board member Tim Cook purchased 25,000 shares at roughly $42.43 each, totaling just over $1 million. Nike CEO Elliott Hill followed three days later with a similarly sized purchase. The back-to-back insider buys pushed the stock up 2.9% at the opening bell following the SEC disclosures.
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