OKC Thunder's Nikola Topic Likely Hindered From 2025-26 All-Rookie Contention

Serbian point guard Nikola Topic is gearing up for his first Oklahoma City Thunder season after missing every 2024-25 regular-season and playoff game with a partially torn ACL in his left knee. Thomas Sorber, whom Oklahoma City took at No. 15 in June's NBA draft, tore his right ACL in an offseason workout on Thursday. The center out of Georgetown will not play at all this year.

Most NBA rookies are not positive players, let alone difference makers. The existing Thunder core scoffs at that fact.

Three Oklahoma City debutants have made the All-Rookie Team since the 2022 draft. Each of them helped catalyze a near 180-degree turnaround. The Thunder improved from the NBA's fourth-worst record in the 2021-22 season to 84 total wins — tied for the third most in league history — last season.

Needless to say, Topic must put on a seismic effort to reach similar status.

Big man Chet Holmgren, who was the No. 2 pick in 2022, averaged 16.5 points on 53.0% shooting, 7.9 rebounds (1.6 offensive), 2.4 assists and 2.3 blocks while playing all 82 games during his 2023-24 rookie campaign. He tallied a 3.4 box plus-minus (No. 35 in NBA, min. 500 minutes), a +2.9 estimated plus-minus (No. 36 in NBA) and a +2.50 LEBRON (No. 28 in NBA), supercharging the Thunder on both ends of the floor.

Holmgren finished No. 2 in Rookie of the Year voting behind San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, who registered an extremely impactful season of his own. Forward Jalen Williams suffered a similar fate as a rookie, recording impressive efficiency and all-around statistics but coming short of Orlando Magic winner Paolo Banchero.

Williams, like Holmgren, was Oklahoma City's most notable addition for a double-digit wins jump. Both started most games as rookies, provided secondary scoring and looked the part on defense — with Holmgren being a top-tier rim protector immediately. Guard Cason Wallace was mostly a reserve throughout his first year, but he showcased elite catch-and-shooting and perimeter defense. These skills were invaluable for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the All-Rookie Second Team with the 2018-19 LA Clippers. He started 73 games, averaged 10.8 points on 47.6% shooting and recorded a modest -0.5 box plus-minus.

Holmgren was the Thunder's best prospect acquired during its rebuild and has played like a top pick since day one. Williams shot out of a cannon in his junior campaign at Santa Clara University, rose up predraft boards with an excellent draft combine, exceeded rookie expectations and has progressed into a two-way star. Gilgeous-Alexander filled in a quality Clippers guard rotation next to Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley, producing when needed on a playoff team. He became Oklahoma City's top scorer the very next year.

The key takeaway: Oklahoma City's three best players were studs before gaining much experience.

Topic does not have much room to showcase his talent because he will play next to a handful of impactful guards. Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace and Isaiah Joe are rotation staples. Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins can play as guards or forwards depending on the lineup, but they are also ahead of Topic on the depth chart. Even sophomore Ajay Mitchell will compete for regular-season minutes.

The Thunder's depth was one of its greatest strengths last season, and it stands to be better this year, even without Sorber. This is bad news for Topic, because all 10 2024-25 All-Rookie members made at least 31 starts.

All-Rookie voting values counting statistics and playing time over value, even though that logic is counterintuitive in the long run. Four of the five 2024-25 All-Rookie First Team recipients averaged double-digit points. The only exception, Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey, averaged 8.3 rebounds (3.5 offensive), 1.3 blocks, 1.0 assists and compiled the best impact metrics of the lot.

Edey and teammate Jaylen Wells were the only awarded rookies who played on a team above .500. The Grizzlies won 48 games with a +4.7 net rating (No. 6 in NBA) and lost to the Thunder in a first-round sweep.

Unsurprisingly, most productive rookies are selected high in the draft, play lots of minutes and put up numbers on bad teams.

Jaylin Williams made nine starts last season despite blossoming into one of the NBA's best backup bigs. Caruso made three starts despite being the NBA's best perimeter defender. This season, Topic will not start games unless numerous rotation players sit out. A first-world problem, to say the least.