Oklahoma City Thunder 2025 NBA Cup West Group A predictions

The Thunder will be favored in every game they play, similar to their status last year in their NBA Cup group. Last year, they were grouped with the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, but for some reason, they did not finish the group stage unbeaten. They took care of business against the Suns and Lakers but fell prey to a Spurs team that was without Victor Wembanyama.

Now, the Thunder still managed to win the group, since they finished with the best point differential in the group (+45) — beating out the Suns for a spot in the knockout stage. That’s when the Thunder began to round into form, defeating the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets handily before losing the plot against the Bucks in the final.

This year, the Thunder remain the favorite in their group to advance to the knockout stage. But the Minnesota Timberwolves pose such a huge threat; even though the Thunder defeated them handily in the 2025 Western Conference Finals, anything can happen in a single-game setting. Anthony Edwards can pop off, or the Timberwolves could even pop off and decimate them by 43 like they did in Game 3 of the WCF.

But the other teams in the group shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Thunder. Joining them and the Timberwolves in the group are the Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns, and Utah Jazz — three teams that aren’t very likely to make it to the playoffs next season.

Thunder game-by-game predictions for 2025 NBA Cup

Game 1: Thunder @ Kings, November 7 at 10 PM E.T.

The Kings have made one admirable attempt after another to remain competitive ever since their magical 2022-23 season. But suffice to say, they are back to being a mediocre team without many avenues to improve the team and establish themselves as a legitimate playoff team in the loaded Western Conference.

The truth of the matter is that the Kings are stuck with their current roster, and all they can hope for is to win 40 games with their core of Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan. But this Kings team is significantly disadvantaged in every facet of the game against the Thunder, if their winless re cord against OKC last season in three games is any indication.

Seriously, the Kings weren’t even fit to tie the Thunder players’ shoelaces. They lost by a total of 71 points in three games — and two of those contests came with De’Aaron Fox still on the roster.

There is no reason to bet against the Thunder in this matchup even if they’ll be on the road for this one.

Prediction: Thunder win by 15+ points

Game 2: Thunder @ Jazz, November 21 at 9:30 PM E.T.

The Jazz are about to enter the fourth year of their rebuild, which has scarcely produced any fruit. And a quick look at their roster right now suggests that nothing is about to change on that front. In fact, they are entering this season with arguably a worse roster than the one they had last year after trading away one of their most productive players in John C ollins as well as trading Collin Sexton away for Jusuf Nurkic.

Lauri Markkanen has been on fire in his Eurobasket tour this summer, but the Jazz haven’t been unleashing him in recent times. But beyond Markkanen, the Jazz roster has so many question marks. They cannot hold a candle to the complete roster the Thunder have.

Even in their NBA Cup game last year, the Jazz stood no chance; they were already down by double digits at the half and that deficit only grew larger in the third quarter, with the Thunder taking care of business rather easily, 133-106.

Expect a similar outcome to happen in their 2025 NBA Cup matchup.

Prediction: Thunder win by 20+ points

Game 3: Thunder vs. Timberwolves, November 26 at 7:30 PM E.T.

The crown jewel matchup of the group, the Thunder and Timberwolves will be in for a collision course to decide which team comes out on top in the group. The first two teams will be mere pushovers for the Thunder, but Minnesota won’t be — especially when the Timberwolves will be coming into the game with a huge chip on their shoulder after seeing their playoff life in 2025 come to an end at the hands of OKC.

But what the 2025 Western Conference Finals showed was that the Timberwolves weren’t even in the same league as the Thunder when the lights are at their brightest. Sure, the Timberwolves did stun the Thunder with a 143-101 win in Game 3 of the WCF, but OKC took care of business rather easily in Games 1, 2, and 5.

The regular season is a different animal, and so is the NBA Cup. The Timberwolves, however, aren’t exactly the best of performers in an NBA Cup setting. T hey went 2-2 last year, although part of that was because the team was still yet to jell following their acquisition of Julius Randle.

Nevertheless, the Thunder will be locked in and they have the Timberwolves figured out — especially when OKC has its singular focus on redemption from last season.

Prediction: Thunder win a close game

Game 4: Thunder vs. Suns, November 28 at 9:30 PM E.T.

The Suns will be entering the 2025-26 season with a significantly worse roster than the one they had last year. Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal are gone, and in are Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. Devin Booker is back to being a one-man show, harkening back the days of the late 2010s Suns where they weren’t able to win much more than 20 games a season.

Last year, the Suns lost all three of their games against the Thunder. The year before that, OKC swept them as well in three meetings. With Phoenix fielding a worse roster, things aren’t about to change for the Valley-based team anytime soon.

Prediction: Thunder win by 5+ points

Thunder find redemption in the 2025 NBA Cup

With a 4-0 record, the Thunder will be entering the knockout stage of the 2025 NBA Cup as the winner of Group A. However, they won’t be finishing as the number-one seed, with the Los Angeles Lakers being the best NBA Cup team among all group winners. This means that OKC will be matched up against another group winner, facing the Houston Rockets from Group C.

Last year, the Thunder faced the Rockets in the semifinal of the competition in what as a slugfest of a contest. OKC had every answer to what Houston was trying to do on offense, and the Thunder suffocated them, holding them to just 36.5 percent shooting. Even with Durant already on the Rockets, OKC has all the defensive tools they need to slow them down once more — leading to a victory for the reigning NBA champion at home.

In this hypothetical, OKC faces the Lakers in the semifinal of the competition in Vegas. The Lakers did take one game over the Thunder back in April, but with OKC being very motivated to redeem themselves from last year, they will hold Luka Doncic and LeBron James to substandard performances, weathering a barrage from Austin Reaves to punch their ticket yet again in the NBA Cup final.

Two very motivated teams will be squaring off in the final, with the Cavs looking to win some silverware after flaming out in the playoffs last year. But in the end, it will be the Thunder that stands tall in Vegas, avenging their loss to the Bucks last year and earning themselves not just a piece of hardware, but a very nice payday as well.

Prediction: Thunder win 2025 NBA Cup