One Swing Skill Could Define Carter Bryant's NBA Success

More than ever, the NBA demands off-the-dribble prowess from perimeter players.

The three-point revolution has intensified the damage of poor help defense, so in response, teams have become more strategic with their help.

They now often target the opposing offense's weakest off-the-dribble perimeter player as a help point in order to funnel the ball to less threatening creators. This counter has elevated the standard for valuable perimeter players' off-the-dribble abilities, shaping the success or struggles of many young NBA players.

Take a pair of 2020 NBA Draft Prospects, for example. Both No. 4 pick Patrick Williams and No. 9 pick Deni Avdija, now with five years of experience under their belts, entered the NBA with similar profiles as Carter Bryant, the subject of this article.

All three players are physical forwards, standing between 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-9 while weighing in between 215 and 240 pounds. They each star on defense, leveraging their size, smarts, and athleticism to bring versatile value on this end of the ball.

On offense, though, they all entered the draft process with a track record of solid, but limited shooting ability. Bryant is a bit better than Williams and Avdija were as shooters five years ago, but the two veterans have made strides as professionals, each shooting 36.9% from beyond the arc in the past two seasons.

However, they've developed into completely different levels of players, in large part due to their off-the-dribble capabilities on the offensive end of the floor.

Avdija is skilled at getting downhill to scoring opportunities from two-point range and the free throw line, while Williams has never been able to do so efficiently. Consequently, Avdija is a high-level starter who continues to ascend. As a member of the Portland Trail Blazers this season, he averaged 16.9 points per game on 60.5 TS%, including an impressive run of 26.8 PPG on 66.4 TS% across his last 13 games.

On the other hand, Williams just averaged 9.0 points per game on 51.2 TS% as his poor play dropped him out of the Chicago Bulls' starting lineup. Despite a foundation of great positional size and athleticism, positive defensive impact, and solid three-point shooting, the Florida State product's inability to convert scoring opportunities off the dribble has significantly limited his NBA impact.

Bryant's game currently revolves around a lot of the same baseline strengths as Avdija and Williams, but ultimately, his development as an on-ball scorer and playmaker will determine whether he's able to be a high-level starter like the former, or a mediocre bench player like the latter.

There's good reason to believe that Bryant has what it takes to develop into an off-the-dribble threat at the next level. He boasts smooth shot mechanics that have shined in flashes of fluid pull-up shooting. Throughout his freshman season at Arizona, he showcased comfort getting to his fadeaway playing off bumps and pivots. Beyond this, he also flaunted his impressive downhill athleticsm for an array of strong finishes at the rim.

Still, he did average just 6.5 points per game, making these flashes relatively infrequent. As the draft approaches this month, teams' expectations for Bryant's off-the-dribble development will play a big role in his draft slot, and eventually, his NBA success.