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Postseason Matchup May Not Matter For The Rockets
Mar 27, 2026; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Houston Rockets forward Tari Eason (17) dunks during the fourth quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

As the postseason approacehes, Western Conference teams are keeping an eye on the standings as they take early looks at their potential first-round matchups. The Houston Rockets may not be paying as close attention, as they may be one of the teams opponents are hoping to match up against.

Not that the Rockets will be an easy out for any team; their defense can still be elite against star players, and the presence of Kevin Durant makes Houston dangerous in the clutch.

However, there is a lack of upside for the Rockets that their fellow Western Conference opponents have.

Just this season, the Rockets have already lost several times to teams they'll likely face in the first round. If the Rockets stay in the sixth seed, their first-round matchup would likely be the Los Angeles Lakers, who beat the Rockets two-straight times as Luka Doncic and LeBron James dominated against Houston.

Another potential matchup, the Minnesota Timberwolves, just beat the Rockets in embarrassing fashion during an overtime meltdown. They were also without many of their top players as Anthony Edwards hasn't played for a stretch of games. Other players suffered injuries and suspensions throughout the game as the Rockets fell to a shell of who they'd face in the first round.

The Denver Nuggets are also a potential matchup. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are still one of the most dangerous duos in the league, and the Rockets have already fallen to the Nuggets this season.

Houston's defense doesn't seem set up to cover the off-ball actions familiar within the Nuggets' offense that uses Jokic as a fulcrum to keep their offense going.

The Rockets' main issue isn't necessarily the other team's offense. Houston's defense may not be as elite as it has been, but it is still capable of strong performances against top teams. The biggest problem is that the Rockets may never have enough offense to keep up with these teams, even if Houston's defense is clicking.

The offensive ceiling from each of these teams creates a situation where they could dominate if their shots are falling. Houston's ceiling on offense is at a point where the team may feel lucky to hit enough outside shots to keep things close against other postseason teams.

Shots will have to fall for the Rockets if they want to have any hope at winning a first-round series, but they'll have a steep uphill climb regardless of who their opponent will be.


This article first appeared on Houston Rockets on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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