Projecting Peyton Watson's Next Contract Value With Nuggets

With Watson's restricted status, the Nuggets have to be wary of opposing teams that have immense amounts of cap space.

A select few projected to have upwards of $40 million in free money (Chicago Bulls, Brooklyn Nets, LA Lakers) could actually rival what Denver is willing to pay on his next deal, depending on how aggressive they are in their pursuit.

Those teams could see a contract like New Orleans Pelicans wing Trey Murphy has— sitting at $28 million a season— and decide that Watson's next deal should be around or close to that number. If they wanted to bump that number up to $30 million a season, he's right on the cusp of being a top 10 highest-paid small forward in the NBA.

At that number, the Nuggets might have second thoughts about pulling out all the stops to bring back Watson. But that's only dependent on other teams going outside the box to offer Watson a premium deal. 

Do Teams See Him as 2nd, 3rd Option?

What could hold back teams, including Denver, from offering him a steep number on his next deal could be surrounding just what his true value might be.

Sure, Watson exploded for an exciting January. He was averaging 21.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.5 blocks a game. But is that sustainable production, or were those games just a flash in the pan?

If teams view Watson as capable of keeping those numbers up with an expanded role, his contract value naturally goes up. If teams don't feel as confident about that production remaining consistent, then a long-term, lucrative deal becomes tougher to hand out.

Recent Injury Might Impact His Valuation

Another unfortunate truth about Watson's next deal: his injury troubles towards the end of last season might put even more question marks on what his upcoming number looks like.

Watson missed 25 of his last 29 games in the regular season, and each of the Nuggets' first-round playoff games with what was deemed a hamstring injury. It was some rare missed time for a player who played in over 90% of Denver's regular season games in the two years prior.

His recent hamstring issue is nothing that should keep him out any longer than what he's been faced with. But durability is as important as any trait a player has on the floor. Offering a multi-year, expensive contract has to come with real assurance that his health looks better moving forward.

Projected Contract Value: $100M/4Y

With all of those factors in mind, this number feels right for Watson for a return to Denver.

A $100 million deal over four years puts him at $25 million AAV. That slots him in at the tail end of the top 15 highest-paid small forwards—the same number as Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges—and at the same rate that Christian Braun got on his extension before last season.

Depending on how his market ultimately shakes out in restricted free agency, there's a chance that an opposing team like the Bulls or the Nets will try to hike up that price ever so slightly, if they have real interest in bringing him aboard.

In that case, the Nuggets might have to put some extra thought into his signing, simply based on how strained they are for cash as is. However, it'd have to be a pretty steep deal for Denver not to prioritize re-signing one of last season's best surprises.