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The Toronto Raptors are in the middle of a transitional phase, with their roster built around young talents like Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Ochai Agbaji. But among the names expected to step into a bigger role this season, Gradey Dick stands out as the player most poised to shock the league with his breakout. After a rocky rookie campaign where he looked overwhelmed at times, Dick made massive strides in his sophomore season, positioning himself to become one of the Raptors’ cornerstones moving forward.

What separates Dick’s trajectory from most second-year wings is not just incremental improvement; it’s the leap he’s already made. From averaging just 8.5 points per game as a rookie to becoming a 14.4 points-per-game scorer in his second season, Dick has proven he can handle the increased usage and minutes. At just 21 years old, he’s evolved from a player who ranked among the league’s worst in advanced metrics (-5.2 estimated RAPTOR in his rookie year) to a reliable, league-average contributor on both ends of the floor.

A statistical leap that signals a breakout

In his rookie year, Dick shot 42.5% from the field and 36.5% from three, often limited to spot-up shooting opportunities. But by year two, with more minutes and a starting role, his offensive profile expanded. His scoring jumped to 14.4 PPG, with 2.1 made threes per game on 35% shooting, and most importantly, he started attacking the rim with confidence. His free-throw attempts nearly tripled, from 0.9 to 2.9 per game, while maintaining elite efficiency at the line (85.8%).

That level of aggression is critical for a young wing trying to prove he’s more than just a floor spacer. Dick’s willingness to drive, draw contact, and generate points beyond the three-point line turned him into a dependable secondary scorer for Toronto. Per 100 possessions, he raised his offensive production from 105 points as a rookie to 111 points in year two, a notable efficiency jump that reflects improved shot selection and confidence.

Historically, players with this type of scoring growth at age 21 fit into elite company. Comparisons to Jeff Malone (1984-85) and DeMar DeRozan (2011-12, 2012-13) underline the type of leap Dick is making. While his style isn’t identical to those names, the statistical parallels show he’s on a path toward long-term offensive impact.

The Raptors’ context will help him shine

The Raptors are not in immediate contention, but their rebuilding structure is the perfect environment for Dick to thrive. Unlike his rookie season, when veterans absorbed most of the offensive load, the current Raptors roster is designed to develop its youth. With Barnes running the offense as a point-forward, Quickley stretching defenses as a shooter, and Agbaji developing as a defensive stopper, Dick has a clear pathway to becoming the team’s primary perimeter scorer.

Toronto’s coaching staff has also given him the freedom to experiment within the offense. New schemes emphasize pace, spacing, and versatility, which cater perfectly to Dick’s strengths. He no longer has to operate strictly as a stationary shooter; instead, he’s being asked to come off screens, attack closeouts, and finish through contact.

His improved defense is still not a strong suit, but more competent than in year one, also ensuring he can stay on the floor for heavy minutes. At 29.4 minutes per game in his second year, Dick earned the trust of his coaches, and that role is expected to expand further.

For the Raptors, who ranked near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings last year, the development of young players is the season’s biggest storyline. And among them, Gradey Dick might just be the one who transforms from an afterthought to a headliner.

Why 2025-26 is the year for Gradey Dick

Toronto’s roster context plays a massive role in why Gradey Dick is primed for a breakout. The Raptors’ front office has doubled down on their youth movement, making Scottie Barnes the centerpiece of the franchise while surrounding him with shooters and versatile scorers. Immanuel Quickley provides playmaking stability, RJ Barrett brings downhill pressure, and Jakob Poeltl offers interior presence. But what the Raptors truly need is a dependable high-volume floor spacer who can thrive alongside Barnes and Quickley.

That’s where Dick comes in.

Breakouts happen when talent, opportunity, and growth align, and Gradey Dick checks all three boxes. The Raptors are counting on him to provide reliable scoring from the wing, and if his preseason trajectory holds, it’s reasonable to expect him to become an 18-to-20 point scorer this season.

He has already proven capable of massive year-to-year improvement. The jump from 8.5 PPG to 14.4 PPG was not a statistical anomaly; it was the product of better shot creation, stronger physicality, and a growing confidence that he belongs at the NBA level.

At just 21, he’s nowhere near his ceiling, but the league is about to see a different Gradey Dick than the one who struggled as a rookie. In the 2025-26 season, he is not just a rotation player or an intriguing prospect; he’s a budding star who could define Toronto’s rebuild.

The Raptors may still be a year or two away from playoff contention, but when people look back at this season, it may be remembered as the year Gradey Dick’s name went from a question mark to a cornerstone. If his development continues on this trajectory, Toronto has found its next offensive pillar.

This article first appeared on NBA on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

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