Revisiting 2025/26 NBA Over/Under Predictions

New York Knicks (over 53.5 wins): ❌ (53-29)

Central

• Cleveland Cavaliers (over 56.5 wins): ❌ (52-30)
• Detroit Pistons (over 46.5 wins): ✅ (60-22)
• Milwaukee Bucks (over 42.5 wins): ❌ (32-50)
• Indiana Pacers (over 37.5 wins): ❌ (19-63)
• Chicago Bulls (over 32.5 wins): ❌ (31-51)

Southeast

• Orlando Magic (over 51.5 wins): ❌ (45-37)
• Atlanta Hawks (over 47.5 wins): ❌ (46-36)
• Miami Heat (over 37.5 wins): ✅ (43-39)
• Charlotte Hornets (over 27.5 wins): ✅ (44-38)
• Washington Wizards (under 21.5 wins): ✅ (17-65)

Eastern Conference record: 6-9

Our voters were burned for the most part here by their overconfidence in the Central Division, where we took the “over” on all five teams. Only the Pistons came through, while the Cavaliers and Bulls fell a little short of their projections and the Bucks and Pacers fell way short, enduring forgettable seasons.

Some bad luck in the Atlantic, where the Knicks and Nets each missed out on their “over” by a single win, helped solidify a losing record in the East.

Western Conference

Northwest

Oklahoma City Thunder (over 62.5 wins): ✅ (64-18)

Pacific

• Los Angeles Clippers (under 48.5 wins): ✅ (42-40)
• Los Angeles Lakers (under 48.5 wins): ❌ (53-29)
• Golden State Warriors (over 46.5 wins): ❌ (37-45)
• Sacramento Kings (over 34.5 wins): ❌ (22-60)
• Phoenix Suns (under 31.5 wins): ❌ (45-37)

Southwest

• Houston Rockets (over 52.5 wins): ❌ (52-30)
• San Antonio Spurs (over 44.5 wins): ✅ (62-20)
• Dallas Mavericks (over 41.5 wins): ❌ (26-56)
• Memphis Grizzlies (under 39.5 wins): ✅ (25-57)
• New Orleans Pelicans (under 30.5 wins): ✅ (26-56)

Western Conference record: 8-7

Unlike in the Central, our voters’ bullishness on the Northwest’s teams was rewarded. We came a single Timberwolves win away from going five-for-five by taking the over on every single team in the division.

That success in the Northwest helped our voters stay over .500 in the West despite a 1-4 mark in the Pacific, where the Lakers and Suns overachieved and the Warriors and Kings went in the other direction.

Overall record: 14-16

It was a slight improvement on last season’s results, but our voters finished just below .500 for a second consecutive season. On the plus side, we were on top of several of this season’s breakout or surprise teams, having taken the “over” on the Pistons, Celtics, Hornets, and Spurs.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!