Rockets 2026-27 NBA season predictions after schedule release

The injury VanVleet suffered prior to the start of the 2025-26 season essentially put a ceiling on just how far the Rockets could go. This was a team that badly needed a point guard who can organize the offense and help space the floor for their more usage-heavy players. Alas, he tore his ACL, putting Houston the backfoot.

VanVleet missed the entirety of the 2025-26 campaign, and the Rockets felt his absence even more during the playoffs, when their late-game execution was terrible and the Lakers routinely exploited their lack of floor-spacing.

But after a full year absence, VanVleet should be healthy enough to suit up more often than not for the Rockets. Houston may need to load manage him from time to time. However, VanVleet’s presence is crucial in balancing the roster, and he’ll at least play enough games to be eligible for postseason award recognition.

Meanwhile, another player crucial in establishing the Rockets’ identity is Steven Adams; Adams allowed Houston to thrive even though putting up points on the board can be such a slog. He inhaled offensive rebounds and allowed them to win the possession war.

When he went down with a season-ending injury in January, it felt as though the Rockets lost so much of the brute force that made them such a pain to play against. But he is expected to be healthy to start training camp, and Houston, while they will be placing an emphasis on keeping Adams healthy, will need him to be on the court most nights if they were to cement themselves as a true contender.

Rockets finish with a top-five offense in the NBA

The Rockets put up a dreadful offensive rating of 105.2 during their six-game series loss to the Lakers in the 2026 NBA playoffs. They labored in their offensive execution, as they missed the likes of Kevin Durant, VanVleet, and Adams so badly.

But Houston was putting up one of the best offenses in the NBA despite VanVleet’s injury when Adams was on the court. And with Adams hopefully being healthy for the majority of the season, Houston is going to be even higher on the offensive ladder in the regular season.

Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard are also expected to take another leap for the Rockets, while Jabari Smith Jr., who is only 23 years of age, could very well have more room to grow. Durant is going to have an easier time scoring the rock now that Houston has a legitimate starting-caliber point guard to set the table, and he won’t be as turnover-prone as he was last season as a result.

Alperen Sengun, of course, is an offensive rock who will average over 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds. Houston has all the makings of a top-notch regular-season offense, although executing in the playoffs, once again, is going to be a different story.

Houston makes a run at Kyrie Irving trade but passes on the opportunity

With the competition in the Western Conference being as heated as ever, the Rockets are going to be involved in trade rumors aplenty once more. In particular, Houston is going to be rumored to be on the market for an upgrade at point guard — with Kyrie Irving being the man they’re interested in.

The Mavericks have shown no intentions to trade away Irving, as they want to see how the team looks like upon the 34-year-old’s return. But with Dallas in the early stages of a rebuild around Cooper Flagg, and Irving being in the final year of his deal, it makes sense for them to at least explore the trade market.

They have first-round picks to dangle in a potential trade, and having Irving over VanVleet (with both being back to their pre-injury form) elevates the team’s upside. It is also a plus that Irving has some experience playing with Durant, and the two of them are still friends.

However, Houston may not want to risk upsetting the locker-room chemistry in the middle of the season. So they will end up not making that blockbuster trade.

Rockets earn homecourt advantage in first round of the playoffs

Even with the Rockets mostly standing pat, they have all the tools to be one of the best teams in the West once more. Whether or not they rise to the level of the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs remains to be seen. But they have elite scoring in Durant and Sengun, elite defenders and glue guys in Thompson, Tari Eason, and Marcus Smart, and they still have some untapped upside in Reed Sheppard.

The Rockets have a gritty identity that they can maximize even more with the returns of VanVleet and Adams, and that should be good enough for them to win at least 52 games yet again, putting them in position to be in a top-four team in the West — enough for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs.