Round Table: OKC Thunder NBA Playoff Preview

Thunder on SI Round Table NBA Playoff Preview

1) Where Has the OKC Thunder Improved the Most during the 2025-26 Regular Season?

Rylan Stiles, Beat Writer: The Oklahoma City Thunder have been forced into being an adaptable group this season more than ever due to injuries. While this was always a strength of any Mark Daigneault club, this year they have really been stress tested. The OKC Thunder's improvement in half court offense with the high-post playmaking of Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell's added development to impact games as a scorer and table setter and even down to Isaiah Joe's more movement shooting role, it gives OKC more confidence heading into the playoffs in an area they struggled in at times a year ago.

Derek Parker, Publisher: The Thunder’s general resilience has been quite a bit better. Last postseason, we saw multiple late-game meltdowns in various Game 1’s. Over the course of the 2025-26 regular season, they were one of the best crunch-time teams in the league, led by none other than soon-to-be MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This postseason, I’d expect their late-game execution to be a real strength.

Randall Sweet, Staff Writer: Consistency from 3-point range. Lu Dort closed the year on a high note after struggling from beyond the arc for much of the season. Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams also shot the ball well after the All-Star break, and the addition of Jared McCain bolstered the team's perimeter shooting.

Ivan White, Staff Writer: The battle of Canadian agitators. Dillon Brooks and Lu Dort love to get into the minds of their opponents and are usually the ones matched up on the opposing star. Considering the playoff intensity, watching the antics of those two should be a fun storyline to watch, especially if they ever get into a scuffle together

Cody Burton, Staff Writer: Additional backcourt production. One of the Thunder’s few weaknesses a season ago was a lack of reliable shot creators on the team outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. The emergence of Ajay Mitchell and the trade deadline acquisition of Jared McCain filled that gap. Mitchell has been revolutionary this season, helping the Thunder maintain dominance despite Williams’s injury. McCain has been a strong shot creator both on and off the ball, giving OKC an additional boost on that front.

2) Who is the X Factor for the OKC Thunder Playoff Run?

Stiles: Isaiah Joe is a player who has faded in recent postseason runs. Despite his gaudy 3 point percentage since arriving in Bricktown and even at a glance in the postseason, Joe was a limited impact player mostly doing damage when the team was way ahead or way behind in the last two postseason runs. Though, things are different this year. No longer is Joe just a stationary catch-and-shoot player but can relocate around the arc, curl off screens and bend around DHOs to get shots for hismelf along with his improved qplaymaking as a live dribble passer to find shots for his teammates. Joe is an improved defender to stay on the floor if his offense justifies it. With the lack of true distance shooting on this roster, the OKC Thunder need his shot making to justify plenty of minutes this postseason.

Parker: Where Jalen Williams lands on the success spectrum will be massive, but Chet Holmgren feels primed to be the biggest needle-mover. The Thunder are going to deal with various star bigs along the way, whether that be Victor Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic, Jalen Duren, Karl-Anthony Towns and plenty more. Holmgren isn’t likely to be guarding those players directly for the entirely of the postseason, but that means he should be slated to see success against other matchups on both offense and defense.

Sweet: Chet Holmgren. The Thunder won a title last season while Holmgren was not at his best, and the first-time All-Star was significantly better on both ends of the floor this year. With Jalen Williams still reintegrating into OKC’s lineup after playing just 33 games throughout the regular season, Holmgren will likely need to shoulder more responsibility on offense than he did during the Thunder’s 2025 run.

White: While Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are obvious potential X Factors, Ajay Mitchell might be the truest X Factor for the Thunder. With almost no postseason action under his belt, Mitchell’s success throughout the regular season will be put to the test under the brightest lights.

Burton: Luguentz Dort. He ended the season knocking down 46.7% of his 3-pointers in the final 10 games. If he can keep this up into the postseason, he’ll be the team’s X-Factor once again.

3) Who is the biggest threat to OKC Thunder in the entire NBA?

Stiles: The San Antonio Spurs have to be considered the biggest threat to Oklahoma City not only given Their success against the Thunder

Parker: While Denver is talented in its own right, Victor Wembanyama offers uncharted waters as a basketball player, making him and the Spurs the scariest opposition for the Thunder. San Antonio also have a three-headed monster of a guard rotation in Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper. The Thunder are a historically good team, but Wembanyama is going to be a historically good player, and it feels like there will come a point where he’s unstoppable. OKC is hoping that now.

Sweet: San Antonio Spurs. This iteration of the Spurs is new to the postseason, but after winning more than 60 games this year, including four against Oklahoma City, San Antonio could skip the learning curve and be prepared to compete for a title right away.

White: The Boston Celtics should be the Thunder’s biggest threat to repeating this season, given their star power and 3-point reliance. While the Spurs had the Thunder’s number in the regular season, the Celtics’ experience should make them the clearest threat.

Burton: The San Antonio Spurs. Despite being the most inexperienced team of all the major contenders to hoist the Larry O’Brien, the Spurs are still a major threat. San Antonio defeated Oklahoma City in all but one of their five matchups this year.

4) Who Has the Most to Gain in this Postseason for OKC Thunder?

Stiles: Ajay Mitchell. He can become a household name for NBA fans seeing how impactful he is at getting the Thunder into their offense and moving the score board in the right direction all along the way.

Parker: Multiple Thunder players all-time outlook will be changed for better or worse in this postseason, though looking more short-term Luguentz Dort is set for a new deal soon. He’s struggled this season, but is seemingly peaking at the right time. Whether it’s the Thunder or elsewhere, his new deal is likely to be directed affected by his play in the coming months.

Sweet: Ajay Mitchell. Mitchell has been a key contributor throughout the 2025-26 campaign for the Thunder, and if the team needs a spark on offense, the second-year guard is one of the first players in line to provide additional ball handling and scoring. After not getting much action in the postseason as a rookie, Mitchell could burst onto the scene this year.

White: Cason Wallace is up for a potential rookie extension this offseason and simply has the most to gain from a financial perspective. While he hasn’t taken the offensive leap some expected, this postseason will give him a chance to add to his resume, which will likely soon include an All-Defensive selection.

Burton: Jalen Williams. An injury-filled year has set Williams back after being instrumental in the Thunder’s 2025 NBA Finals run, but another strong playoff run will boost the former All-NBA wing’s legacy even more.

5) Western Conference Finals Prediction

Stiles: The Oklahoma City Thunder will take down the Denver Nuggets in a Game 7 at the Paycom Center. Jokic's ability to pull Wembanyama out of the paint in the second round and need to see San Antonio adjust along the way as Denver's title experience comes through to get to the Conference Finals. The Thunder and Nuggets know each other very well, each game will come down to the wire, but the more talented team bares out.

Parker: I’d expect the Thunder to beat the Nuggets in five games. While the Spurs are the scariest opposition for OKC by way of Wembanyama, I don’t know if they’ll have the necessary experience to get past Denver. While Jokic and the Nuggets certainly have a chance at the title, they’ve been up and down this season. Fresh off a battle with the Spurs, and with OKC seeing less mistakes and even more talent, I’m not sure they’ll have enough to deal with the Thunder.

Sweet: Thunder vs. Spurs. These two squads have been the best in the Western Conference throughout the year. San Antonio will have the tougher path, though, with a potential second-round matchup against a veteran Denver Nuggets squad looming.

White: No need to overthink the obvious conference finals matchup between the Thunder and Spurs, the league’s two best teams in the regular season. Although the Spurs were able to get the best of the Thunder in the regular season, the playoffs are a different animal, and it’s hard to imagine the Spurs knocking off the Thunder in their first postseason run. I’d take the Thunder in 6.

Burton: Oklahoma City Thunder defeat the San Antonio Spurs in six games. The teams will battle in a closely contested series, with each home team winning until the series’ final match

6) NBA Finals Predictions

Stiles: The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics play in a thrilling seven game series with the point differential of less than ten points. The Thunder will stall out at times against the Celtics elite defensive schemes but the team will lean on superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to bail them out in the clutch and earn the Thunder's second straight NBA Championship.

Parker: I think the Celtics will come out of the Eastern Conference, offering a tough and proven opponent for the Thunder. Ultimately, I think Oklahoma City can win in six games or less. They’ve proven themselves the best team in the league the entire season, and should have answers for everything Boston can throw at them.

Sweet: Thunder vs. Celtics. The last two NBA champions. Two teams peaking at the right time. Two of the best coaches in the league. What could be better?

White: With the Thunder poised to come out of the West again, it’d be fitting to get the NBA Finals matchup many expected at some point in the past two years against the Celtics. Perhaps the biggest threat to the Thunder, the Celtics would likely push the defending champs to six or seven games, but I’d predict home-court advantage to be enough to push OKC to another ring.

Burton: Oklahoma City Thunder defeat the New York Knicks in five games. The Knicks will be the team to tumble out of the wide-open Eastern Conference, but OKC’s depth will reign supreme, just as it did in the team’s previous two outings.

Stay tuned to Thunder on SI for complete coverage of the Oklahoma City Thunder's NBA Playoff run.