Scouting Snapshot: Is Kasparas Jakučionis A Lottery Bet In The 2025 NBA Draft?

Kasparas Jakučionis has put together one of the more productive freshman seasons in college basketball this past season, serving as the primary initiator for an Illinois team that leaned heavily on his touch, footwork, and playmaking. A consensus lottery projection heading into the 2025 NBA Draft, Jakučionis offers a real combination of skill and feel for a young guard.

But despite the early production and clear offensive craft, his projection at the next level comes with considerable risk, particularly if viewed through the lens of a long-term lead guard.

The Encouraging Parts Of His Game

Jakučionis has established himself as a polished off-the-dribble shooter, with a great ability to organize his shooting footwork quickly. He’s demonstrated strong touch across different areas of the court — beyond the perimeter, inside the arc, and free throws—while maintaining efficiency despite a heavy on-ball workload.

In addition to his shotmaking, Jakučionis has posted a 26% assist rate, showcasing his ability to take on a high playmaking load. This holds up on tape where he consistently reads defenses and operates as a live-dribble passer. Illinois used him extensively in ball screens and structured spacing, allowing him to punish defenders with bounce passes, skips, and pocket feeds.

What separates Jakučionis from many ball-handlers in his class is how he uses physicality and footwork to generate scoring windows. Rather than relying on burst, he bumps defenders off their line, leverages angles, and finds creative finishes around the rim. Illinois supported this style by incorporating shallow cuts to engage weak-side help early and stampede actions to get Jakučionis downhill before the catch. These concepts allowed him to create advantages without needing to beat defenders off the dribble, while amplifying his footwork and touch near the basket.

Areas Of Concern

Despite the offensive upside, several areas raise red flags when projecting Jakučionis to the NBA. Chief among them is possession control. He ended his season with a 25.4 turnover rate (TO%) and a generally high turnover rate on creation-based play types, struggling to handle defensive pressure. When forced to create out of isolation or navigate through traffic, his weaker burst, loose handle, and lack of space-creation east to west influence the high turnover rate. On the other end of the floor, Jakučionis doesn’t generate defensive events and fouls at a relatively high rate, resulting in a net negative impact in terms of possession control.

Equally concerning is his off-ball scalability. Across all of his samples since 2023, Jakučionis has shot just 31.4% on catch-and-shoot threes (105 attempts). This lack of playfinishing off the ball outside of cuts limits his lineup versatility and makes it harder to project him in hybrid or secondary roles alongside other creators.

These weaknesses are interconnected. Without reliable off-ball shooting, Jakučionis will face more congested driving lanes. And without more secure ball-handling and decision-making under pressure, it is difficult to forecast efficient outcomes when the ball is in his hands. This creates a difficult developmental pathway, as both skill areas likely require focused, gradual improvement—ideally in a low-pressure context.

Projected NBA Role

While early-season flashes suggested potential as a point guard, Jakučionis may be better suited in the NBA as a connective wing. In this role, his strengths - touch, footwork, playmaking - can be implemented while reducing his exposure to high-turnover situations. Operating as a tertiary handler, attacking closeouts, and making quick reads off movement would allow him to add value without being overburdened.

Teams can optimize his development by continuing to incorporate stampede cuts, ghost screens, and movement-based spot-up actions to help build his off-ball shooting. Improving that shooting baseline would open up more lineup combinations and unlock his value in a broader set of schemes.

Teams with patient development infrastructure and a clear plan to scaffold Jakučionis' responsibilities by having better ball handlers supplement him will be best positioned to maximize his long-term outcomes. Regardless, for franchises seeking a primary initiator outcome, the risk may outweigh the reward.

Intriguing Fits In The Draft:

Chicago Bulls | Minnesota Timberwolves | Miami Heat