
Jabari Smith Jr. was in the running to be the No. 1 pick in 2022. As the college basketball season unfolded, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Smith, having led Auburn to its first No. 1 ranking in school history, were all in the mix to be the top selection.
We’ll leave the history lesson there, but the point is Holmgren has won a championship and Banchero, who Orlando took first, has averaged 22 points per game over his four seasons, bumping his scoring clip up to 27.4 in the playoffs. The Magic are similar to Smith’s Rockets in that they haven’t won a playoff series with Banchero on the roster either, but he’s the face of their franchise and the first name on every opponent’s defensive gameplan.
We’re still waiting for Smith to break through. The 6-foot-11 forward has by no means been a bust. He just turned 23 years old in May and comes off his most productive year after signing a five-year, $122 million extension prior to last season. Smith stepped up in the playoffs in a manner that makes the first few months of the 2026-27 season crucial to Houston’s future.
With Kevin Durant limited to a single game out of six in the Rockets’ first-round loss to the Lakers, Smith was able to be more aggressive and shot over 37 percent from 3-point range, played 42 minutes a night and averaged 17.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. With Durant back, not to mention Fred VanVleet healthy to help set the table and improve spacing, can Smith replicate those numbers?
With the Rockets season on the line, Jabari Smith Jr. looked like the guy we saw at Auburn who was worthy of a top pick:
— Chancellor Johnson (@ChancellorTV) April 30, 2026
TikTok: @ChancellorTV pic.twitter.com/Su9gE0W5F0
Can he improve on them?
Every team has Most Improved Player candidates they’re hoping will make a major leap. The offseason is perennially fueled by hope as players work on their game for months. We could write a similar column about Amen Thompson or his brother Ausar of the Detroit Pistons making the short list to follow in Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels’ and Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s shoes as next season’s MIP simply by becoming better shooters.
Nearly a decade ago, Giannis Antetokounmpo won the award. Since, future All-Stars Victor Oladipo, Pascal Siakam, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Ja Morant, Lauri Markkanen and Tyrese Maxey were recipients prior to back-to-back wins for the Hawks. There’s no question Smith has the talent to make a similar leap.
Ime Udoka believes Jabari Smith Jr. resembles a young Kawhi Leonard
— Polymarket Hoops (@PolymarketHoops) April 16, 2026
“Reminds me of Kawhi Leonard back in the day. When you talk to Kawhi now, he’s pissed about standing in the corner for three years. He felt like he wasted some years, but I think the growth and progression… pic.twitter.com/JUkGnJfRAB
Smith has been compared to Kawhi Leonard and the guy he grew up emulating, Durant. This will be the second season they’ll be teammates, so it’s concerning that his most consistently strong play when it mattered most came when the 16-time All-Star was sidelined. Rumors their relationship wasn’t the greatest may or may not be true, but relationships evolve and partnerships grow. Smith needs to take the next step in his development whether he and Durant get along or not.
“I think playing without him (Durant) just showed me how much we need to work on as far as being able to do more,” Smith said in his post-game availability session on May 2 after Houston was eliminated. “Everybody say they want more, more of an offensive role, more shots, more touches, but don’t know what come with it. To be able to play against all types of defenses and adjust on the fly is something that is a skill. (It’s) something I’ve got to get better at.”
Leonard was in his second season when Udoka was hired by the Spurs to begin his coaching journey for the first of what would be eight seasons as an assistant to Gregg Popovich. Entering his fourth season as Rockets head coach, Udoka is comparing Smith to Leonard for a reason, hoping he can make a similar leap.
Beyond the offensive improvement, Smith needs to take advantage of his physical gifts, the ease with which he moves at his size an d a wingspan of over 7-feet, to emerge as a better defender. He's yet to average over a block or steal per game, but came closer last season and seems poised to make a leap in that area too.
It sounds like the playoffs served to help Smith gain confidence and be more assertive. The Rockets can only hope he can build on performing at a high level on the sport's biggest stage, especially since he caught some heat for saying "top to bottom, I just think we're a better team" than the Lakers before ultimately losing.
Smith topped 30 points twice during the regular season, shot 6-for-10 from 3-point range in a playoff game and set season-bests in last season's only stop against his hometown Atlanta Hawks with five blocks and three steals.
Not coincidentally, Smith's highest-scoring performance also came in a 34-point effort against the Hawks, so it's clear playing Atlanta brings out the best in him. Getting him to play with confident fire consistently will go a long way in the Rockets taking a major step forward.
Consider that Smith had a season-best 16 rebound game in Memphis on March 27 and didn't have another game where he grabbed double-figure boards the rest of the regular season.
Despite playing 77 games, he recorded just 14 double-doubles, notching more than three in succession only twice. There's simply no excuse for someone nearly 7-feet tall playing over 35 minutes per night to grab five or fewer rebound 28 times. That's unacceptable.
Smith grabbed six or more boards in every playoff game, which is proof he can meet the moment. He must now approach the game with an attack mindset going forward. Improving his approach and production seems like an obvious path for Houston to take its next step after seemingly plateauing last season despite Durant's arrival.
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