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The most promising part of the Miami Heat's start
Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

If the Miami Heat were trying to qualify for the college football playoff, they'd be in pretty good shape.

We know that strength of schedule is supposed to matter there, and in that department, Miami would catch some attention. The Heat have a caught a few breaks, with the likes of Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson and Donovan MItchell all missing matchups, but they've also played quite a few good teams that were whole.

And still, they're 13-6.

They've achieved that record even though one metric shows they've played the seventh-most challenging schedule so far, out of 30 teams. It's based on something called Opponent Estimated Plus-Minus. And it shows that the Heat have faced the toughest slate of any of the current contenders in the East, while rising to the third seed.

The Heat have another doozy coming up, this one against the top-seeded Detroit Pistons, though it will be at home. That's Saturday. And there's a trip to Orlando coming next Friday night. But there are also a lot of softer squads that Miami hasn't faced once yet, let alone twice or three times, as they will against some.

They have yet to face Washington or Utah or Brooklyn or New Orleans or Indiana, and won't in some cases until 2026. They play three of those four teams in one week in early February, for instance. That's a time when a healthy Heat squad could fatten up and pad its record.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, when the Heat face under-talented teams. They're not at an elite level yet, and they tend to play down to competition. They lost to the Cavaliers with Mitchell out, and nearly lost to the Bucks with Giannis out, needing to close out on a defesive possession.

But their depth should be a plus as the season progresses, especially against teams that are sitting stars or tanking for lottery balls. Meanwhile, Miami has so many players who have exceeded expectations that it's been hard to figure out who sits -- at the moment it's Nikola Jovic, whom the Heat trusted enough to extend prior to the season.

The Heat have already taken a daunting West Coast trip (that doomed stop in Denver is out of the way!), and they've already survived a 17-game stretch without Tyler Herro, who has come back rolling, scoring 53 points in his first two appearances. If it seems like it's all up from here, that is a safe bet, and we will see if they can rack up wins against lesser lights as the season progresses.


This article first appeared on Miami Heat on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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