Timberwolves vs. Mavericks picks, prediction: NBA Playoffs series preview

When the Wolves Are on Offense

Minnesota's offense whirred against Phoenix in the first round but looked more like its regular-season unit against Denver at times. The Timberwolves have a historically great defense, but the offense is still closer to league average.

Oklahoma City's defense did its job for the most part against Dallas, but it wasn't enough when the Thunder couldn't score anyway. Can Minnesota avoid the same fate?

The Wolves are not a particularly efficient scoring team inside the arc, and the Mavs defense took a huge leap late in the season protecting the rim and siphoning off opponent 2-pointers.

Minnesota ranked second in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season, but the Thunder ranked first and missed a ton of shots. The Wolves will get some looks — they need to make them.

Karl-Anthony Towns was wonderful against Denver, especially in the final two games, and this series sets up well for him. Dallas doesn't really have a good matchup for Towns.

P.J. Washington should get the first crack, but Towns should have a big series. He'll need to against a tough defense, especially since Dallas should throw Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green and plenty of extra eyeballs at Anthony Edwards.

The Wolves should get to the line as well, so home-court advantage will help there. Minnesota could also get some extra scoring of offensive rebounds, something that went the Wolves' way in the regular-season matchups.

Minnesota's biggest advantage could be its depth.

Dallas' stars are just as good, if not better, but Minnesota has the better starting role players and a much more reliable bench. Naz Reid was Sixth Man of the Year, Nickeil Alexander-Walker is another key wing defender to throw at Kyrie Irving and Doncic, and this should be a much better matchup series for Kyle Anderson.

Dallas has few bench options of its own. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dante Exum are practically out of the rotation at this point, Jaden Hardy is too young against this defense.

That depth advantage could swing in a hurry, though, if Mike Conley's calf issues re-emerge. Minnesota's offense was stuck in the mud and then some in Game 5 against Denver with Conley out. On the other side, any further injury to Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively could leave Dallas woefully undersized and outmanned in the middle.

When the Mavericks Are on Offense

The Mavericks offense is good, but Minnesota's defense is elite. Both defenses have the edge in this matchup.

The Mavs rank top-three in 3-point attempts; the Wolves are top-five against 3s defensively. Dallas has a top-five 2-point percentage offense; Minnesota ranks first in that stat defensively.

At a high level, Minnesota's defensive strengths match up well with the Mavs outside of some potential foul and free-throw trouble.

But look at the matchups a bit closer, and a problem quickly emerges: who guards Luka?

Jaden McDaniels will get the first call, but he's the wrong archetype of Doncic defender — just too slight a frame for Luka's strength. Alexander-Walker is even smaller. Anderson hasn't been effective this postseason but has the strength to hold his own, so maybe he gets a shot?

Anthony Edwards is probably the best matchup, but he can't defend Doncic all series and score 30 a game.

Those Minnesota defenders match up much better against Irving, who could have another quiet series, and Rudy Gobert's rim protection against Dallas' non-spacing centers should get the job done at the rim.

Keep an eye on Maxi Kleber's injury status — he's a key swing piece in this matchup for his ability to stretch Gobert out away from the rim and might also be the Mavs' best option to guard Towns.

It could be wise to go under on Gobert's rebounding prop if Kleber returns — and maybe even fade Gobert as the series rebounding leader at that point.

The truth about Dallas is that the Mavs have come as far as they have this postseason more because of the three through eight players on the roster than the stars.

Doncic's scoring is down. He's barely above 30% on 3s, and his 2s and free throws are down, along with most of his advanced metrics. Irving played great in Round 1 but was pretty quiet last round.

The Mavs' role players have been outstanding, though. Doncic didn't outplay Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last round; Dallas beat OKC because its third player crushed the Thunder's. If you count Washington in Games 2-4 and Jones in Games 5-6 as one player, that "third Dallas star" averaged 23.6 PPG on almost five 3s a game at 53%.

Can Minnesota turn off the spigot for these Mavs role players?

History says historically elite defenses like Minnesota tend to lose when they face at least a top-seven defense. Dallas finished 10th offensively in the regular season, and its stars have been more good than great. Do the Mavs have the juice?

It sounds reductionist, but it might just come down to the stars.

Will Doncic play like the best player in the series? And will he be in a tier by himself or much closer to Ant? Will Irving be closer to Edwards or Towns?

If Towns can mostly match Irving and Ant can offset Luka, there's little question Minnesota has the clear edge down the roster from there.

That's a big ask for two inexperienced Minnesota stars, though. Irving has been here before, and don't forget Doncic has played in a Western Conference Finals on top of a litany of big international games.

Why History Says Minnesota's Game 7 Win Matters Here

One of the most important factors in this series might very well be something that already happened.

History is extremely unkind to teams coming off a Game 7 victory in the following Game 1.

Per our Evan Abrams, teams coming off a Game 7 playing an opponent that isn't are just 16-30-1 ATS (35%) in the following Game 1.

That's already pretty bad, but it also includes a heap of mediocre teams that outlasted another subpar opponent before getting squashed the following round — think Cleveland beating Orlando before getting lambasted by Boston.

I'm more interested in Game 1 home favorites coming off a Game 7 win. What happens when a team that was good all season gets pushed to the brink but survives? How do they respond the following game and series?

In a word: tired.

The favored home seed coming off a Game 7 victory is an ugly 5-8 straight up in Game 1s over the past decade. Those favorites are still 7-6 in the series — not bad, but certainly not as good as you'd hope for the home favorite.

And four of those series wins came against an opponent also coming off a Game 7; take those away, and now the favored seed is an ugly 3-6 in the round after Game 7.

In a series that looks very close, this could be a huge swing factor in Dallas' behavior.

Home-court advantage disappears in a hurry if you give away Game 1, and that home Game 7 isn't worth much if you never make it that deep in the series. Only four of the 13 favored seeds from this sample even made it to another Game 7, and all but one of them were so exhausted they lost anyway.

Overs are also 12-1 in those Game 1s featuring a home favorite coming off a Game 7 — another sign of a tired team that can't lock in quite as well defensively.

Don't forget, Dallas has been dealing with injuries to both Gafford and Lively in the middle, and most importantly, Doncic's knee. This is the healthiest, most rested Dallas will be all series.

If the Mavs use this rest and health advantage to steal Game 1 on the road against a tired Minnesota squad still recovering after Game 7 in Denver, that could swing the entire series from the jump.

Best Bet: Over 5.5 Games

Series Bet: -160 (DraftKings)

This is the bet I wanted to make each of the past two Mavericks series, but it was juiced so heavily that I talked myself out of it, opting for a narrower bet with a better payout that ended up missing instead. This series, I'm opting for the surer win.

Dallas series are consistently going long with Doncic. In seven Doncic series, all but one have gone at least six games, and his teams are now 6-1 against the series spread.

Dallas is good, its defense is good, and its two stars are both good enough to win any game on their own.

Minnesota is good, too, with an elite defense. This series feels very coin-flip-like and unpredictable, and Minnesota's home-court advantage could be negated by the worrisome Game 1 trend after Game 7.

I don't play many -160 series bets, but a 62% implied probability is too low for a long series.

Barring a major injury swing, it's tough to see either side closing this out early. Dallas probably needs to steal Game 1, win both Games 3 and 4 at home, then return to Minnesota and close out in five. Not likely. Minnesota has a better shot if it holds serve at home the first two games, wins one in Dallas and closes out at home.

Those aren't impossible scenarios, but they aren't 38% likely either, so I'll play the over 5.5 games.

If you do want a side — I'm sorry to my Wolves fandom — the value is on Dallas here, particularly because I don't feel the need to be on a short Dallas series win so I can instead split a bet on Mavs in 6 (+500, BetRivers) and Mavs in 7 (+750, FanDuel) at an implied +252 ticket.

If Dallas can only win a long series, that's effectively giving us a 28% implied chance of the Mavs winning the series, and that number is very clearly too low. That's also a ticket that instantly gets much more valuable if Dallas does steal Game 1, likely becoming the series favorite.