Until playoffs, Rockets should be commanded by 'Captain' Westbrook

There’s a memorable scene in the movie Captain Phillips  where the pirates take over the ship, and Muse, the lead pirate, calmly tells Captain Phillips (Tom Hanks), “Look at me. Look at me. I’m the captain now.” It’s a simple yet powerful line, and you immediately understand that Muse is not only in complete control of the situation, but that he, not Captain Phillips, will be the star of the movie from that point. Like some great villains, he’s so captivating that you find yourself almost rooting for him by the end of the movie.

Russell Westbrook is the Muse of the 2019-20 Houston Rockets (29-18), who are tied with the Mavericks -- Friday's opponent -- for fifth in the Western Conference. And Russ' rise in the team hierarchy might be exactly what superstar James Harden and the Rockets need now. But The Beard, like Captain Phillips, must get the upper hand at the end. 

Captain Harden

The first 25 games of this season mirrored last season in that the Rockets were, without question, Harden’s team. He averaged an insane 39.3 points, 7.5 assists, 5.9 rebounds, 24.7 field goal attempts, 14.0 three-point attempts and 13.6 free throw attempts per game. During that same stretch, Westbrook averaged 22.5 points, 7.3 assists, 8.0 rebounds, 19.7 field goal attempts, 5.0 three-point attempts and 6.0 free throw attempts. There was a clear pecking order in the first quarter of the Rockets’ season -- Harden was the first and second option, and Westbrook was the inefficient third option.

But then something changed …

Actually, a couple of things changed. First, opponents got sick of routinely getting embarrassed by Harden, so they blitzed pick-and-rolls, forcing him to give up the ball, and sometimes double-teamed The Beard as soon as he crossed half court. Harden was so unstoppable that teams resorted to gimmick defenses typically not used after high school basketball.

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To counter, Harden often found Westbrook, giving him an opportunity to attack four-on-three. Over Harden’s next 19 games, his per-game averages in points (30.9), field goal attempts (22.1), three-point attempts (11.5) and free throw attempts (10.3) fell compared to the first 25 games. Meanwhile, Westbrook increased his points to 31.5 (+9.0), field goal attempts to 25.4 (+5.7), and free throw attempts to 7.4 (+1.4) per game.

The second thing that changed was that Harden got banged up, missing three games and looking limited in others, and fell into a slump. Because of his thigh injury or simply wear and tear, Harden has been off in Houston’s past 22 games (42-34-83 shooting splits). His shooting splits were 45-36-88 for the first 25 games of the season.

The third change, and the most important for the Rockets, was that Westbrook became more efficient, improving his shooting splits from 43-23-76 over the team’s first 25 games to 49-24-82 over the team’s past 22. His six percent improvement on field goals and free throws is impressive. And while his three-point percentage is still horrific, he’s shooting significantly fewer threes per game than he did earlier this season. In fact, over his past six games, he’s only attempted five.

Westbrook has removed the largest wart in his game, but he's attacking the basket with the same reckless fervor that we saw earlier in his career. Although he’s not the same athlete he was his mid-20s, Westbrook is still one of the best athletes in the league. He's even developed into a craftier finisher in the lane. Russ' newest shot is a mini-Dirk, one-legged fadeaway that allows him to get into the paint, keep the defender at bay, and take an easy 5-10-footer.

Dive a little deeper into Westbrook’s shooting efficiency and shot selection, and you’ll see that Harden’s presence and Houston’s spread-out offense have helped him become a better shooter everywhere except at the rim and three-point line. Compared to last season, Westbrook's shooting percentage at the rim has dipped from 64 percent to 61 percent (attributable to his declining athleticism). But his numbers are up in these categories compared to 2018-19:

+ Between three feet and 10 feet from the basket: 23 to 39 percent
+ 10 to 16 feet: 32 to 40 percent.
+ 16 feet to the three-point line: 35 to 42 percent.