Who Would the Houston Rockets Protect in an Expansion Draft?

• Kevin Durant
• Alperen Sengun
• Amen Thompson
• Jabari Smith Jr.

The Rockets have heavily invested in each of the four players in this category, separating them from the rest of the pack. Giving up Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and considerable draft capital for Kevin Durant was the right call, and Houston wouldn't change their minds now –– Durant stays.

Sengun wasn't originally a high-investment player, he was selected with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. However, after a breakout All-Star 2024-2025 campaign, it's clear that Sengun is irreplaceable in Houston, making him a lock.

Amen Thompson was selected with the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft, and has been worth every bit of it. As if earning All-Defensive first team honors in his second season in the NBA wasn't enough, he's transformed into a dynamic offensive player both in the playmaking and finishing departments. Players like Thompson don't come around often, and the Rockets would certainly keep him.

There's a clear talent gap between Jabari Smith Jr. and his peers in this section, but the Rockets have poured heavy investments into the forward nonetheless. 2022's No. 3 overall pick hasn't quite reached his star potential yet, but has been a contributing rotational player through his first three seasons, and just recieved a $125 million contract extension, solidifying his long-term role with the team.

Probably, but no guarantees

• Tari Eason
• Fred VanVleet
• Dorian Finney-Smith
• Reed Sheppard

Eason was stellar off the bench last season, putting up arguably the best statistical season of his career, averaging career highs in points, steals and assists per game. He embodies Houston's toughness and physicality at the forward spot. His only downfall in an expansion scenario is his short-term contract, which expires at the end of the 2025-2026 season barring an extension.

VanVleet poses a similar issue, as his contract could expire at the end of 2025-2026 as well, unless he picks up his player option. VanVleet's been the lead guard in Houston for his two seasons, and has turned into a key leader on the squad. He's probably safe, but there's no guarantees given his contract situation.

As for his backup, Reed Sheppard, it's the opposite. Sheppard's contract keeps him on the team for three more seasons, but his production has been lackluster. 2024's No. 3 overall pick has yet to become a real contributor for the team, but has enough value invested into him that he's likely safe on the protection list.

Dorian Finney-Smith was signed to a four-year contract worth $56.9 million over the offseason, meaning he's around for the long haul. However, he's on the wrong side of 30 and could show signs of regression soon.

Just missed the cut

• Steven Adams
• Clint Capela

Two veteran bigs signed new contracts with the Rockets over the offseason –– Steven Adams on a three-year, $39 million, and Clint Capela on a three-year, $21 million. While Houston surely isn't eager to lose either, the veterans aren't exactly the type of player a rebuilding expansion team would be looking for, making it less risky to send the big men into the pool.

Unprotected

The last group of Rockets is highly unlikely to be protected in this scenario, as they play minimal roles and haven't had high capital invested into their futures. While they're valued members of the team, the ones above them take precedent in protection rankings, making this last group more expendable.

• Aaron Holiday
• Josh Okogie
• Jae'Sean Tate
• Jeff Green
• Kevon Harris (two-way)
• J.D. Davison (two-way)
• Isaiah Crawford (two-way)
• Cameron Matthews (Exhibit 10)

The final group

• Kevin Durant
• Alperen Sengun
• Amen Thompson
• Jabari Smith Jr.
• Fred VanVleet
• Tari Eason
• Reed Sheppard
• Dorian Finney-Smith