Why can’t the NY Knicks win on the road?

As the New York Knicks circle the drain, winning just two of their last nine games, Knicks fans are pointing fingers in every conceivable direction to pinpoint blame for the team’s underperformance.

Whether it’s Karl-Anthony Towns, head coach Mike Brown, or the defense as a whole, there are a plethora of reasons why the Knicks no longer look anything like title contenders. Their latest losses, double-digit defeats to the Sacramento Kings and the Golden State Warriors, have sent Manhattan into lockdown.

Ultimately, though, the Knicks’ issues can be boiled down to a very simple split: home and away.

At home, the Knicks are 16-4 with a +9.4 net rating. Both marks rank second-best in the NBA behind only the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

On the road, New York is 8-12 (17th) with a -2.5 net rating (18th).

Those numbers are all you need to summarize the Knicks’ issues. At Madison Square Garden, they play every bit like a championship contender and the best team in the Eastern Conference. Anywhere else, they look like a play-in team.

The Knicks’ .400 discrepancy between their home (.800) and away (.400) win percentages is the largest in the NBA by a longshot. The closest team is the Miami Heat, all the way down at .317.

What gives?

Let’s dive into the areas where the Knicks are seeing the largest drop-off between their home and away performance.

Overall defense

The Knicks’ offense is much better at home. However, even on the road, they are putting up enough points to win games at a high clip.

New York has the NBA’s best home offensive rating (122.3). While that number drops by more than five points in away games (117.0), they are still the eighth-best offensive team on the road.

It’s the defense that plays the role of Kevin McAllister.

At home, the Knicks have a 112.9 defensive rating. It isn’t elite, ranking 13th-best, but it is more than good enough to facilitate the Knicks’ championship formula: league-best offense and respectable defense.

Coupled with their top-ranked home offense, the Knicks’ 13th-ranked home defense is enough to give them the second-best overall net rating (+9.4). This is how they want to win games; it’s a formula that allowed the Denver Nuggets to win it all in 2023.

On the road? That 112.9 defensive rating balloons to a ghastly 119.5, ranking 27th in the NBA. That’s a 14-spot drop, the largest in the NBA. Only the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Sacramento Kings are playing worse defense on the road.

You can win on the road with an eighth-ranked offense; the Philadelphia 76ers and San Antonio Spurs rank 10th and 11th, respectively, in road offensive rating, and both teams are five games above .500 on the road.

But that type of offensive production goes for naught if it is washed out by a 27th-ranked defense. Philadelphia and San Antonio are getting by with good-not-great offenses thanks to their defenses, which rank second and third, respectively, on the road.

Clearly, the Knicks’ defense is their primary issue away from Madison Square Garden. So, to understand the Knicks’ road woes, we have to dive deeper into their defense.

It all starts with defensive rebounding

If you want to narrow it all down to one primary suspect, defensive rebounding might be the best bet.

At home, the Knicks collect 71.6% of opponent misses, ranking fifth-best.

On the road, their defensive rebounding rate dips to 69.3%, just 15th-best.

That’s a 10-spot drop, equivalent to one-third of the league.

Defensive rebounding is a hallmark of the Knicks’ defensive philosophy. They must thrive on the defensive glass to succeed as an overall defense. With players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson playing starter minutes, they will never be an elite team at forcing misses, so it is paramount for them to secure the misses they do force. If they can just keep second chances to a minimum, they can get by on defense.

And with players like Towns, Josh Hart, and Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks are equipped to be a top-tier defensive rebounding team. We see it at the Garden, and it’s a big reason why the Knicks have an above-average defense there. Away from the Mecca, though, New York’s defensive rebounding is average, and that spells doom for a defense with multiple sieves in the starting lineup.

The truth is, New York actually doesn’t fare that much differently at forcing misses depending on where they play. At home, they rank 22nd in effective field goal percentage allowed (54.8%), and on the road, they rank 25th (55.9%), just a three-spot difference. This puts the spotlight on their defensive rebounding as the primary culprit for their defensive drop-off on the road.

It’s especially daunting because defensive rebounding should be something that travels. It could be understandable if the Knicks struggled to stop teams from shooting well on the road, as NBA teams tend to be more comfortable shooting in their own building, but there is little explanation for the Knicks having so much trouble translating their defensive rebounding to other cities.

The silver lining is that this should be a fixable problem. Perhaps it can be chalked up to a lack of motivation during the regular-season grind, which can be corrected as the playoff hunt ramps up. Simultaneously, though, it would be extremely concerning if a championship-hopeful team is already displaying effort issues before the All-Star break. The defending-champion Thunder aren’t using the “regular season slog” excuse.

The Knicks have to ramp up their effort on the defensive glass in road games. It’s as simple as that.

Two more fundamental issues on defense

Defensive rebounding appears to be the main issue, but there are two other critical problems: fouling and forcing turnovers.

At home, the Knicks are 15th in opponent free throw rate (0.267) and 13th in opponent turnover rate (14.7%). These are the types of competent rankings that New York requires to anchor a solid overall defense when coupled with their top-tier defensive rebounding (with a limited ceiling due to their inability to thwart opponent shooting).

On the road, the Knicks drop nine spots in both categories. They are 24th in opponent free throw rate (0.285) and 22nd in opponent turnover rate (13.5%).

Ultimately, the Knicks are struggling most in the fundamental areas of defense. They allow opponents to rain down buckets no matter where they play; that is an inherent weakness related to their roster construction that cannot change. However, defensive rebounding, fouling, and forcing turnovers are effort and discipline-related problems.

The Knicks show us at home that they are capable of doing just fine in these areas. The fact that they suddenly cannot do it on the road suggests they are a team that lacks mental fortitude at the moment.

The main offensive concern: Free-throw shooting

In many areas, the Knicks’ offense does not look much different on the road.

As a matter of fact, they are better in some ways (relative to the expected drop-off from playing on the road). New York ranks four spots higher in effective field goal percentage on the road (7th, 54.9%) than at home (11th, 55.4%). In turnover percentage, the Knicks are three spots higher on the road (7th, 13.8%) than at home (10th, 13.7%).

The most glaring problem with the Knicks’ offense on the road is their free-throw shooting. Their drop-off in that department is mind-boggling.

At home, the Knicks are making a stellar 84.5% of their free throws, ranking second-best in the league. Away from home, they plummet to 75.8%, ranking 25th. The 8.7% drop-off is the highest in the league by a wide margin (2% higher than the closest team, the Dallas Mavericks).

Paired with their struggles in fundamental areas of defense, the Knicks’ massive drop-off at the charity stripe serves as further evidence that New York’s road woes are far more mental than tactical. Simply put, when they play on the road, the Knicks are incapable of doing things they are fully capable of doing at home, especially in the sport’s most controllable facet: free-throw shooting.

The only explanation is a rattled team that currently lacks the mental toughness to thrive outside of a comfortable environment.

It’s a frightening sign for a team with Finals-or-bust expectations.