2019 NFL MVP favorites and odds

Two gifted running backs — Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson — won the Associated Press NFL MVP Award in consecutive seasons, 2005-2006. Since then, 11 of the past 12 MVPs have been quarterbacks, including 2018 top dog Patrick Mahomes who earned 41 of the 50 first-place votes. Fellow quarterback Drew Brees finished second. So Adrian Peterson's 2012 season — less than a year removed from a torn ACL — remains the last time somebody other than an NFL quarterback hoisted the NFL MVP hardware.

Spoiler alert: Based on the favorites to win the 2019 MVP, don't expect this trend to change anytime soon.

Odds via Bovada

Odds: +2,500
2018 Stats: 3,395 pass yards, 24 TDs and 13 INTs | 488 rush yards  and four TDs

A shoulder injury may have cost Newton the final two games on paper, but anybody who watched the Panthers quarterback grind out the 2018 season knows it cost the team much more. Carolina started the season 6-2 and in a prime position to reach the playoffs. However, the severity of Newton’s shoulder injury prevented him from throwing balls down field and allowed defenses to cheat up and play the underneath routes. After the hot start, the Panthers lost seven of their last eight games. Newton had offseason surgery to repair the shoulder, and he’s expected to be back at 100 percent by the start of the season. His MVP chances ride on improved play of DJ Moore, Jarius Wright and a healthy Greg Olsen. The veteran tight end has missed 16 games over the past two seasons due to injury, but when healthy he’s Cam’s most trusted target. If Olsen misses time, running back Christian McCaffrey’s MVP odds could be just as high as Cam’s.

Odds: +2,000
2018 stats: 4,308 pass yards, 32 TDs and 12 INTs

Rivers may be the NFL equivalent of MLB’s Cal Ripken. The Chargers ironman has not missed a game for 13 consecutive seasons. While the league has gone to great lengths to protect the quarterback, the fact Rivers hasn’t sustained a serious injury over the past 208 games is nothing short of a miracle. Led by Keenan Allen, his receiving corps remains intact and receives a slight upgrade with the full-time return of tight end Hunter Henry who missed the 2018 regular season with a torn ACL. The one constant who is missing as of press time is Melvin Gordon. The Chargers starting running back is holding out in hopes of a new contract. If Gordon’s holdout lingers into the regular season, Rivers' odds of winning the 2019 MVP should take a notable hit.

Odds: +3,300
2018 stats: 718 pass yards, five TDs and three INTs (in only three games due to torn ACL)

The saying goes, "we don’t know what we don’t know," and when it comes to Jimmy G. what we don’t  know outweighs his elite hype. Garoppolo has yet to play in more than six regular-season games and missed the final 13 games of the 2018 season with a torn ACL. So the 2019 season will be a fresh canvas on which to either paint a masterpiece and fill in those unknown gaps OR post pedestrian stats as he has through his first nine games as the 49ers quarterback: 12:8 TD:INT ratio. If you’re looking for a reason to back this long shot, Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes will benefit — not hurt — Jimmy G’s shot at the 2019 MVP.

Odds: +3,000
2018 Stats: 4,924 pass yards, 35 TDs and seven INTs

Ryan was one of only four quarterbacks last season to finish with more than 600 pass attempts. Aside from a pass-first offense, the primary reason his pass attempts reached a three-year high is due to a host of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, which turned the secondary into Swiss-cheese city, and opponents racked up early leads. So Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley (10 TDs as a rookie) and others spent most of the game in rally mode via the pass. If the defense can stay healthy, the Falcons are one of those squads that could flip the script and qualify for the playoffs one year after missing them. Ryan is as consistent as they come and despite turning 30 years old, Jones will go down as one of the top targets in NFL history.

Odds: +3,000
2018 Stats: 5,129 pass yards, 34 TDs and 16 INTs

Without Le’Veon Bell last season, Roethlisberger led the NFL in completions (career-high), attempts (career-high), passing yards (career-high) and pass yards per game. The loss of both Bell and Antonio Brown will no doubt change the Steelers’ offensive dynamic, but don’t sleep on wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster to fill Brown’s shoes as Big Ben’s primary receiver in addition to a healthy running game of James Connor and Jaylen Samuels behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. While many believe the AFC North torch has been passed to Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns, an MVP season by Roethlisberger would mute any chance of that happening.

Odds: +2,000
2018 Stats: 4,165 pass yards, 26 TDs and nine INTs | 551 rush yards and five TDs

The good news for Watson is that he’ll probably compete for an NFL MVP one day. The bad news is that unless his offensive line play improves 1,000 percent, he won’t be among the 2019 MVP finalists. Remember: Despite mobility that rivals Russell Wilson, Watson was sacked a league-high 62 times. To be fair some of those sacks were no doubt Watson’s fault. However, as of early August, head coach Bill O’Brien admits he still doesn’t know who will start on the offensive line. How does this not get addressed in the offseason? Forget Watson’s MVP chances. The Texans could find themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time.

Odds: +2,000
2018 Stats: 3,223 pass yards, 24 TDs and 12 INTs

The Chicago Bears 2018 defense ranked first in points allowed and against the rush, third in turnover differential (+12) and seventh against the pass. Its pass offense ranked outside the top 20. So the obvious question becomes where can Trubisky improve in his third year when the top three receiving targets remain the same and the Bears front office elected to shake up the running back depth chart after averaging 121 rush yards per game last season (11 ^th)? It’s a loaded question. Despite an above-average arm and 421 rush yards and three rush TDs last season, it’s hard to fathom Trubisky making enough of a statistical leap toward MVP when the most valuable players — plural — on the team likely reside on the defensive side of the ball.

Odds: +2,500
2018 Stats: 3,448 pass yards, 35 TDs and seven INTs

Because the Seahawks averaged a league-leading 160 yards per game last season, Wilson’s passing totals were the lowest since 2014. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but for the Seahawks to make another Super Bowl run, the offense needs to find a consistent passing game aside from Wilson running for his life on third and long. Wilson was sacked 51 times last season, but that total could have been higher if not for his elite mobility out of the pocket. So the offensive line play must improve, and Pete Carroll needs to find lighting in a bottle with second-round draft pick DK Metcalf. The 6-foot-4, 228-pound receiver out of Ole Miss is a polarizing brand, but Wilson has no choice but to embrace the rookie because without Doug Baldwin, No. 3’s primary target is 5-foot-11, 175-pound speedster Tyler Lockett.

Odds: +1,200
2018 Stats: 3,074 pass yards, 21 TDs and seven INTs (11 games)

Wentz’s 2017 season was cut short due to an ACL tear, and he missed the final three games of the 2018 season with a stress fracture in his back. The knock of Wentz is that these annual ailments date back to high school. However, when you place the injury history on the back burner and assess a potential 16-game campaign for the Eagles quarterback, it’s evident he has the talent and players around him to make a run at an MVP and Super Bowl title. One guy who will help him reach those goals is DeSean Jackson. The speedy, downfield receiver returns to Philadelphia at age 32 and should allow for Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor to enjoy softer coverages this season. Also, the arrival of Jordan Howard should improve the Eagles 28 ^th-ranked running game of a season ago, which should also boost Wentz’s MVP odds.

Odds: +1,600
2018 Stats: 4,355 pass yards, 29 TDs and 11 INTs

When it comes to the Patriots offense, Brady has been forced to make chicken soup out of chicken droppings several times throughout his career. However, with Rob Gronkowski retired and Julian Edelman the only reliable commodity within the Patriots pass offense, the now 42-year-old may have to cook up the best stew of his life. Brady truly contending for an MVP this season may come down to the play of first-round draft pick, N’Keal Harry. The 6-foot-4 receiver out of Arizona State racked up 2,230 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons. New England needs to find a way to stretch the field and give Brady a downfield threat a la Gronk or the Pats offense becomes one-dimensional.

Odds: +1,100
2018 Stats: 3,725 pass yards, 27 TDs and 14 INTs (14 games)

If preseason hype equated to wins and losses, the 2019 Cleveland Browns would already be 16-0 and Baker Mayfield’s statue would be erected outside First Energy Stadium before Week 1. Odell Beckham Jr.'s production on the field will ultimately determine whether or not Mayfield remains an MVP favorite throughout this season. It’s imperative that Mayfield and OBJ connect early and often, because for Mayfield and, in turn, the Browns to take those next steps towarda the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl, this quarterback must complete better than 63.8 percent of his passes as he did last year.

Odds: +1,200
2018 Stats: 3,992 pass yards, 32 TDs and five INTs

At 39 years old, the 2018 NFL MVP runner-up set career highs in completion percentage (74.4 percent) and quarterback rating (115.7). With top wide receiver Michael Thomas content with his new contract and hybrid running back Alvin Kamara lurking in the backfield, Brees has plenty of talent around him to make another run at the league’s MVP. However, this now 40-year-old quarterback is more likely to be focused on NFC championships and Super Bowl opportunities. So he’ll sacrifice some statistical eye candy if it means the Saints are still playing this February.

Odds: +1,000
2018 Stats: 4,442 pass yards, 25 TDs and two INT

Considering he played through injury for most of the season, behind one of the league’s most inferior offensive lines while losing one of his top receivers all within Mike McCarthy’s system, perhaps Rodgers deserves more credit for merely surviving the 2018 season. With McCarthy gone, the hope is Rodgers has more autonomy at the line to check off and find creative ways to get the ball to Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison, whom he lost to a season-ending injury early last season. The front office also worked to upgrade the offensive line via the draft and free agency so that Rodgers doesn’t end up on the turf 49 more times this season.

Odds: +600
2018 Stats: 4,593 pass yards, 39 TDs and 15 INTs

After missing the entire 2017 season due to a shoulder injury, Luck picked up right where he left off and then some last season. His 98.7 quarterback rating was a personal best, and 39 touchdowns came one shy of a single-season high set back in 2014. Luck was sacked 41 times in 2016 (seco^nd-most) but only 18 times last year. It’s amazing what an efficient offensive line will do for a) your health and b) your MVP chances.

Odds: +550
2018 Stats: 5,097 pass yards, 50 TDs and 12 INTs

After starting his sophomore season on fire, Mahomes cooled off somewhat toward the end. His 66 percent completion percentage ranked 16^th among fellow quarterbacks below Matthew Stafford and just above Eli Manning. The good news for his back-to-back MVP campaign is that aside from Kareem Hunt, most of the skill position players around him return.