2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers schedule analysis

Circle the date: Week 15 at Green Bay Packers

It's expected to be a long season for Tampa Bay and fans will likely need to take their victories where they can find them. Wide receiver Mike Evans continued his historic career with a ninth-consecutive 1,000-yard season since being drafted out of Texas A&M and can get closer to wide receiver immortality with another one. 

His streak is already three years longer than the one Hall of Famer Randy Moss posted to begin his own career and two shy of tying Hall of Famer Jerry Rice for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons at any point. Based on Evans' career average of 76.1 yards per game, we could expect to see him cross the 1,000-yard threshold against the Packers in Week 15, or close to it.

Toughest stretch: Weeks 1-4 (at Minnesota Vikings, vs. Chicago Bears, vs. Philadelphia Eagles, at New Orleans Saints)

We won't have to wait long to see what kind of fight this Bucs team has in it. Tom Brady's retirement is expected to set the team back, but Tampa Bay returns several other pieces of the core that won the past two NFC South titles. This is a prideful group that won't go down easy. That said, it has a tall mountain to climb early on. A road game at Minnesota to begin the season is no cakewalk and drawing the defending NFC Champion Eagles in Week 3 could have the Bucs staring at a 1-2 (if not 0-3) record heading into their divisional showdown in New Orleans, the NFC South favorite in 2023.

Easiest stretch: Weeks 9-12 (at Houston Texans, vs. Tennessee Titans, at San Francisco 49ers, at Indianapolis Colts)

Games against the three worst teams in the AFC South lighten this part of the schedule, though it also features a difficult road test at San Francisco. Per ESPN's Mike Clay's projections, the Bucs' game against Tennessee is one of two it has a greater than 50 percent win probability in, while the contests against Houston (46 percent) and Indianapolis (49 percent) are essentially toss-ups.

Over/under on when Tampa first reaches out to Brady? 4.5 weeks

Breakups are hard. At their lowest points, people might feel inclined to dial their ex and try to rekindle that old flame. And at some point this season, Tampa Bay will be crying into a tub of ice cream, desperately hoping Brady picks up the phone and agrees to one last run. If (when) it happens, we would expect for it to be early, most likely after that difficult opening stretch. The Bucs are on their bye in Week 5 and might want to spend that time trying to coax Brady out of retirement. It's far-fetched, but so is the idea of the Bucs winning without him.