3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Colts

Creating balance as an offensive play-caller is something that Payton has spoken about since coming to Denver in 2023. The former Super Bowl-winning head coach has explained ad nauseam how an effective run game alleviates pressure on the quarterback, controls the clock, and gives the defense time to rest and adjust the game plan.

However, at halftime in last week’s ugly win against the Titans, Payton had called a total of 22 passes to just nine runs, resulting in two turnovers and an ineffective outing that was frustrating and ugly to watch. 

Once Payton dispatched the Broncos’ two newest running backs, J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, in the second half, the chains started to move, and the offense reached the end zone for the second time late in the fourth quarter. Dobbins and Harvey combined for 133 total rushing yards and averaged almost six yards per carry as a duo, with one score on the ground.

In the Colts' blowout win over the Miami Dolphins, Indy's defense held its opponent to just 78 total rushing yards and three first downs on the ground. Granted, the game was out of control almost out of the gates, with Miami scoring a late touchdown in the fourth quarter. Still, the Colts' defense remained disciplined in a performance that produced three sacks while allowing just 4.6 yards per play the entire day.

In my estimation, Dobbins and Harvey should be better producers than Dolphins running back De’Von Achane, who ran the ball seven times for 55 yards and caught three passes for 20 yards with the lone touchdown of the day. 

Payton’s pursuit for balance can only come to fruition by trusting his handpicked duo of running backs to lead this Broncos offense on the road in Indy. 

A Defense ‘Jones-ing’ to Crush Colts’ QB Revival 

Just when you thought the Broncos' defense couldn’t get more aggressive than it was in 2024 by leading the NFL with 63 sacks, the unit started this season by recording six sacks against the Titans.

The same Vance Joseph-led defense that reset the franchise sack record books in 2024 is currently leading the NFL in sacks just one game into the season. Heading into Indianapolis, Denver boasts six different players who recorded a sack last Sunday, in addition to forcing two fumbles.

On top of that, Broncos' star cornerback Patrick Surtain II didn’t allow a single catch in 34 coverage snaps, being targeted only once on a pass that he broke up.  The Broncos' secondary held its opponent to just 12 receptions and 12 points the entire game, refusing to give up a single touchdown.

Meanwhile, new Colts quarterback Daniel Jones notched his first win in Indy after going 22-of-29 for 272 passing yards and a touchdown, with two rushing scores vs. the Dolphins. 

Sure, quarterback revivals are possible, and everyone loves a comeback story, but Jones and the Colts beating a bottom-feeder team in Week 1 does not equate to a career resurgence for the former No. 6 overall pick, who was run out of New York after posting a 24-44-1 record as the Giants' starter.

Jones is the same quarterback with sloppy mechanics, poor decision-making, and ball-security issues. Denver’s defense will be looking to tune him up with base personnel or stacked blitz packages, should he decide to scramble for yards or attempt to operate from the pocket.

Former Broncos pass rusher Bradley Chubb was the only Dolphin to sack Jones in Week 1. While Chubb’s time in Denver was nice and all, he only reached double-digit sacks once (rookie year). The Broncos' current pass-rushing posse is as formidable as it is dangerous entering the first road game of the season, with both starters (Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper) notching double-digit sacks last year.

Find Bo’s Happy Place

Despite being a part of the Broncos' first victory at home last Sunday, second-year quarterback Bo Nix recognizes that throwing two interceptions and coughing up a fumble isn’t sustainable in the NFL. Key to managing such setbacks is a short memory that allows a quarterback to extract the lesson quickly and move on.

"You have to just have a short memory and pretend like it never happened," Nix said on Wednesday. "You learn from it during the week and after you watch it, but pretty much right when you make the mistake you know not to do it again. It’s good to go through that. [I’m] glad it’s Week 1, not Week 21 and make these mistakes now and learn from them.”

The character of Denver’s dominant defense undoubtedly reversed what should’ve been an automatic Week-1 loss with three offensive turnovers and one giveaway on special teams. A multitude of rushed plays, delay of game penalties, and missed assignments marked a very bothered and outwardly frustrated Nix.

40 passing attempts cannot be the baseline for Nix. He made 22 completions last week with 176 passing yards and eight rushes for 18 yards. His quarterback rating told the story, though: 60.0.

Aside from improved play scripts, a balanced offensive philosophy, and an effective scheme, Payton needs to design something for Nix to relax, have fun, and inspire creativity and trust in this offense. This will lead to sustainable momentum.

I’m not suggesting that the solution is for Payton to go to extremes and make Nix a receiver again, as he did last year when he caught a goal-line touchdown pass thrown by Courtland Sutton against the Baltimore Ravens. 

But perhaps some designed quarterback runs, or simple-read RPOs, can remind the 25-year-old signal caller that this game is supposed to have elements of fun. Remember, Nix was the Broncos' second-leading rusher in 2024 and has reminded opponents of his speed, athleticism, and agility.

While I don’t subscribe to the theory that Nix is a dual-threat quarterback in the same vein as a Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, it wouldn’t hurt for Payton to lean on his quarterback's ability to improvise both on the ground and through the air to gain yards or attack the Colts.

Recommended Articles

The Colts' secondary will be susceptible to a Broncos passing attack that features play fakes, play-action passes, and bootlegs. Payton must stay balanced, while Nix has to relax a little and not play so tight.