Aaron Burriesci Against The Spread: NFL Opening Night Lock

The New England Patriots face a tall task when they head into Seattle to face the defending champion Seahawks. Lumen Field is already widely regarded as one of the most difficult places in the league for opposing teams to play on an average game day. Add in the fact that it’s the first game of the NFL season, and a Super Bowl banner is going up pregame, and that is a combination no coach wants to be up against.

The 12s are going to be losing their minds from start to finish, and it’s hard to imagine the Patriots’ offense thriving in this type of environment in game one. Drake Maye was sensational last season, but nobody would say New England had a high-flying offense, and many would point to their extremely weak schedule as a main reason for their success.

The additions of receivers AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs are certainly major upgrades to the unit, but what kind of chemistry do they have with Maye? The Pats didn’t play any starters in the preseason, which means they have never connected in a real game. Practice is great, but going on the road against a championship-caliber defense isn’t exactly the ideal scenario to build a rapport with new teammates.

To make matters worse for New England, explosive second-year running back TreVeyon Henderson has already been ruled out. Rhamondre Stevenson is a capable back and will become the main RB in his absence, but not having Henderson’s home-run ability against a top defense is a major blow.

While Seattle has the more complete roster on paper and the decisive home-field advantage, they are not without worry. Like the Patriots, they also chose not to play the majority of their starters during the preseason. This could be a concern on the offensive side in particular, with first-time offensive coordinator Brian Fleury calling plays and rookie first-round pick Jadarian Price as the starting running back.

Fleury obviously got some experience calling plays in the preseason games, but not with any of his usual supporting cast on the field. Price wasn’t even the RB1 on his college team, as he was second fiddle to fellow first-round pick Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame. It remains to be seen how he responds to being a team’s featured back, and how much of a workload Seattle trusts him with to begin the year. It is possible the offense hits the ground running, as they are still flush with weapons, but it is probably unrealistic to expect a light show in Week 1 against a Patriots defense that is formidable in its own right.

The Seahawks’ elite defense is well documented, and with DC Aden Durde and defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald returning, this is a group that bettors should feel confident in backing. There are playmakers at all three levels, and they are extremely well coached.

The one concern about this unit going into Wednesday is that they may be thin at the safety position. Rookie second-round pick Bud Clark is already lost for the season, and now Nick Emmanwori and Ty Okada’s statuses are in question for Week 1. While not ideal, if they are unable to suit up, the Macdonald and Durde braintrust is as capable as any to patch things up on the fly at safety for one game.

Overall, people should expect to see a highly competitive contest with a lot of energy, but also a lot of rust. Most of the guys out there will be seeing their first real action since February, and it’s likely to show. Seattle is the better team, they are at home, and they are on a mission to prove they weren’t just a one-hit wonder. It would be foolish to expect New England to roll over and die, because Mike Vrabel teams don’t do that, and he and his players remember exactly what happened the last time they met. Bettors should feel confident about a low-scoring, hard-fought ballgame.

Seahawks win 20-16, and everyone who tails the teaser goes home happy with a little more money than they started with.

Thank God it’s finally football season.