NFL Week 13 'Beat the Line' moves

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Nov 27, 2023 1:22 PM ET

What an odd Week 12 it was for our "Beat the Line" bets. We took the New York Giants +3.5 against the New England Patriots thinking the spread would move in our favor. It curiously went the opposite way and closed at +4.5, but the Giants still won outright. We also took the Las Vegas Raiders +9.5, and the line didn't move all week. We were sitting pretty after the Raiders jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but they were outscored, 31-3, the rest of the game to blow the cover. Then, the first leg of our teaser cashed with the Houston Texans, but the Cleveland Browns couldn't bring us home.

It wasn't a winning week, but we're still better than .500 on the year. Let's get back on track with three Week 13 NFL bets we believe will create closing line value by Sunday.

2023 record: 22-9-5 CLV, 19-16-1 ATS

Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins

What a nightmare matchup this is for the Commanders. Washington ranks 31sh in the NFL in passing yards allowed per attempt and dead last in opponent average passer rating. This is arguably the worst passing defense in the league, and now the Commanders have to face Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Good luck!

The Dolphins should be able to cruise to 30 points in this game, and the Commanders have plenty of experience playing from behind and airing the ball out with Sam Howell. This total should creep higher and higher throughout the week, so grab the over now. The bet to make: Over 49.5 (-110 FanDuel)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers

Josh Allen just torched the Eagles defense for 339 passing yards and four total touchdowns in the pouring rain, so it's hard to envision the 49ers having any trouble moving the ball and scoring in Week 13. San Francisco has averaged 30.7 points per game and 411.3 yards per game in three weeks since its bye. The 49ers can put up similar numbers against Philly.

As for the Eagles, they rank third in the NFL in points per game (28.2), and they've scored at least 21 points in all 10 of their wins this year. This has the makings of another shootout. The bet to make: Over 46.5 (-110 FD)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns

This is a classic buy low, sell high spot.

The Rams played their best game of the season in Week 12 with a 37-14 demolition of the Arizona Cardinals, while the Browns are coming off a 29-12 loss to the Denver Broncos in which they managed just 269 yards of offense.

P.J. Walker is not a good quarterback, but the Browns are 2-1 this season when he plays a majority of the snaps. This Cleveland defense has proven it can win games by itself, and that could be the case in Week 13 against an immobile Matthew Stafford. This spread is too high considering the Rams have no home-field advantage and are going up against the best defense in the NFL. The bet to make: Browns +4.5 (-105 FD)

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