Analyst Says Rams Have Blueprint To Beating 2025 Champs

Robert Mays’s conclusion of The Athletic Football Show is simple but profound:

“Can you be a team that can put a ton of heavy bodies on the field? They’re going to match you with light bodies, and you can run the ball efficiently because you have a size advantage.”

In other words, Seattle’s scheme thrives on athletic, lighter personnel, making it vulnerable to teams that can create power mismatches while maintaining flexibility.

Mays also emphasized the outsized role of experience:

“A quarterback like Matthew Stafford has seen a lot of defenses like this before. His ability to recognize coverage, manipulate zones, and create windows for himself changes everything. Against Seattle, his experience amplifies the offense’s efficiency beyond what raw personnel advantage alone can do.”

The Rams offense has (mostly) effectively executed this approach. Stafford’s vision and ability to attack deep in zone-heavy defenses complement heavy and versatile formations. Paired with strategically deployed tight ends and receivers, the Rams force lighter personnel into disadvantageous matchups while maintaining flexibility to adjust mid-play.

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Personnel vs. Formation: 13 Personnel Struggled

Data from the 2025 season reveals the challenges the Rams faced when running against Seattle’s defense. Heavy formations like 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TE) accounted for 67.5% of rushes (56 of 83 attempts) but produced only 3.52 yards per carry and negative expected points added (EPA) of -0.160 per attempt. Explosive runs (10+ yards) occurred just twice in 56 attempts (3.6%).

In contrast, lighter personnel groupings (non-13 personnel) were far more effective: 5.93 yards per carry, positive EPA of +0.261 per rush, and a 22.2% explosive run rate (6 of 27 attempts). First down rate nearly doubled (33.3% vs 17.9%), and success rate rose from 33.9% to 44.4%.

While 13 personnel keeps the defense honest, Seattle’s scheme neutralizes much of the power advantage. The takeaway mirrors Mays’ principle: pairing heavy formations with a quarterback like Stafford, who can manipulate zones and exploit spacing, allows the offense to create mismatches and maintain efficiency.

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Stafford: The Ultimate Weapon Against Seattle

Stafford’s dominance against the Seahawks in 2025 illustrates why this strategy works. Over three games:

• EPA per dropback: +0.312 (vs. -0.037 for other QBs)
• Yards per attempt: 8.58 (vs. 5.81)
• Passer rating: 110.8 (vs. 73.5)
• Explosive pass rate (15+ yards): 20.5% (vs. 11.7%)
• Interceptions: 0 in 112 attempts

Stafford’s veteran experience allows him to attack vertically while reading zones in real-time, creating advantages that go beyond the personnel on the field. As Mays notes, his ability to recognize and manipulate defensive tendencies is a force multiplier, making the Rams’ offense not only powerful but unpredictable.

Explosive Plays: Where the Rams Win

While 13 personnel struggles in efficiency, the Rams excel when using lighter formations with Stafford’s vision:

• Yards per carry improvement: +2.41 yards (5.93 vs 3.52)
• Explosive run increase: 517% higher (22.2% vs 3.6%)
• Positive EPA generation: +0.421 per rush

These metrics underscore the principle: success against McDonald’s Seahawks doesn’t come from copying their defensive meta, but from forcing them to react to dynamic, unpredictable offensive sets. By spreading the field and creating mismatches, the Rams consistently generate bigger plays and higher efficiency.

Bottom Line

The Los Angeles Rams’ 2025 offense, built around Stafford’s elite decision-making, downfield vision, and experience, exemplifies how to attack Seattle’s disciplined defensive scheme. Heavy, predictable 13 personnel sets fail to generate positive outcomes, while lighter, mismatch-oriented formations thrive:

• Success rate: 44.4% vs 33.9%
• First down rate: 33.3% vs 17.9%
• EPA per rush: +0.261 vs -0.160
• Explosive run rate: 22.2% vs 3.6%

The strategy is clear: force the Seahawks to defend all parts of the field, capitalize on Stafford’s experience and elite performance, and rely on spacing and versatile personnel rather than raw power sets. Against Seattle’s meta, agility, creativity, and strategic quarterback play are the keys to sustained offensive success.