Analyzing Bucs OC Zac Robinson’s Playcalling Debut

Screens Worked – For Now

As a former Florida resident, I can appreciate the need for a good screen (given all the mosquitos). Zac Robinson acted like a true Floridian, calling true screens on 14% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks. But going beyond those designed screens, Baker Mayfield threw behind the line of scrimmage on 11 of his 27 pass attempts (39%). This was three more attempts than the short (0-10 yards) portion of the field and four more times than the intermediate (10-20 yards).

The designed screen game was efficient, generating a 60% success rate and three first downs. Two of those first downs came on third down. But the problem with an offense that targets behind the line of scrimmage so often is that it requires strong execution over and over. Those plays rarely go for explosive yardage. It’s a great additive component of an offense, but leaning into it as the biggest part of the passing game won’t yield strong results in the long run.

Play-Action Was Good – In Theory

Zac Robinson was committed to using play-action early and often. The Bucs dropped back to pass on first down 15 times and 60% of those were of the play-action variety. They added four more on later downs. The process is sound. Play-action yields a higher success rate and EPA than any other type of play. Going under center on 56% of the team’s first downs is excellent and running play-action on the majority of those snaps is even better.

The concern here is similar to the behind the line of scrimmage concern. Play-action is supposed to be an explosive hunting call. It draws linebackers in, reading their run keys and opens up the intermediate portion of the field for big plays with yards after the catch. Tampa Bay was unable to find those plays. Just four plays went for double-digit yardage (and one of those was a designed screen to Cade Otton). None went for an explosive (defined as a pass play of 20 or more yards).

Additionally, the Bucs took two sacks on play-action calls. That’s unusual as those calls typically slow down a pass rush. Many of the Bucs’ run fake calls were designed rollouts that reduce the field for Baker Mayfield and box him into throws to the flat for minimal gains. There were at least flood calls where Mayfield opted for a flat read.

I love the idea of a heavy play-action offense. I just hope Robinson can include less calls where Mayfield is rolling out and reducing his options while simultaneously increasing his odds of targeting the short area of the field. Keep him in the pocket, run full field reads and let Mayfield attack the intermediate portion of the field where he was at his best in this game.

Bucs Run Game

The wide zone era is here. And despite my concerns coming into the season, it has started well in Tampa Bay. The Bucs ran mid/wide/outside zone (all under the same classification for Sumer Sports) on 33% of their 15 designed runs. They netted 31 yards, a 60% success rate and 6.2 yards per carry, including gains of nine, nine and 10 yards on their successful runs.

Their inside zone attempts went for 12 yards on three carries (4.0 avg.) with +0.17 EPA/play and a 33% success rate. The gap system that has served the Bucs run game so well since 2023 was ineffective in this game. Four carries for 10 yards (2.5 ypc), negative EPA and zero successful runs. Their lone power run went for seven yards and a positive EPA.

What I will be monitoring going forward is the run calls based on running back. Bucky Irving got all five of the wide zone runs. Kenny Gainwell logged more than half of the inside calls. Does Zac Robinson see this backfield as a bifurcated system with each back strong in different areas of the run game? And if so, will that lead to tells opposing defenses can key on down the line? Time will tell.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for Robinson’s Bucs debut. It was masked by execution blunders from the players. The vision seems to be exactly what we thought it would be. Wide zone and boot with more horizontal than vertical pressure. And that will help the offense in the interim, but it will limit explosives and force perfect execution time and again.

Can the players keep that up? It’s a lot to ask of them – as we saw in Sunday’s loss in Week 1 at Cincinnati.