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Assessing the 49ers' chances of making the playoffs

Originally posted on San Francisco 49ers on SI
By Parker Hurley | Last updated Nov 18, 2025 6:00 PM ET

The San Francisco 49ers currently sit at the seven seed in the NFC Playoff picture, but there appear to be eight teams fighting for seven spots overall.

A win for the 6-5 Carolina Panthers against San Francisco may change things, but as right now they are big underdogs to make it as anything other than their division winner, while there are eight teams favored to make the top seven. Where do the 49ers stand amongst the playoff contenders?

What are the San Francisco 49ers' playoff odds?

By almost all accounts, the 49ers are viewed as a near lock to make the playoffs, and that is even considering they are the seven seed.

As things currently stand, the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles are bigger favorites. However, the 49ers are right there with a group of teams with the third-best odds to make it out of the NFC into the playoffs.

DraftKings has them at -750 and FanDuel has them at -590. The implied odds on that are 88% and 85% respectively. NFL.com has a playoff projection system that gives them an 86% chance of making it, while ESPN FPI has them at 90%. Lastly, FTN, the home of DVOA, has them at 86% and the Athletic has matched that in their projections as well.

The worst odds that you will find are 85% and the best are 90%. They have significantly good odds. The 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks, and they tend to have the next best odds. However, some projection systems favor San Francisco over them because of the win that they have banked. The win was in Seattle, too, so Seattle will have to beat San Francisco on the road, even if they come in healthier.

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers have poor odds to make the wild card, as almost all projections have them dueling it out with each other to survive and win the division. No other team is given a shot in the NFC East, leaving the NFC North.

Most projection systems favor the Green Bay Packers, who have 0.5 games in the standings and a tiebreaking win over the Detroit Lions. Both teams are currently behind the Chicago Bears, but Chicago currently has the eighth-best odds in all of the systems, making them the most likely to miss the playoffs.

Chicago has barely gotten by against some bad teams, and they have two matchups with Green Bay, a road game against San Francisco, and they already have a loss against Detroit. This gives them the worst chance.

While it is just rounding, the overall idea is that San Francisco has a 10-15% chance of missing the playoffs. Green Bay and Detroit are in the 20% range, and Chicago is closer to 40-45%.

This article first appeared on San Francisco 49ers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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