At 6% Playoff Odds, Dallas Must Run the Table

Where the Cowboys Stand Right Now

The Cowboys are currently sitting at 6-6-1, but the real story is the conference record.

We’re just 3-5-1 in the NFC, and if you’ve been following the Cowboys all season, that means we aren’t winning tiebreakers over anybody in the wild-card race.

Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco, and Detroit are all positioned ahead of the Cowboys because they haven’t cratered in their conference, and they have much better records at this point in the season.

With only three conference wins, we’ve dug ourselves into a spot where a wild-card climb isn’t realistic.

That’s why I keep coming back to the same conclusion: If the Cowboys are making the playoffs, they have to go through the division.

The Eagles’ Path and What Cowboys’ Fans Need to Happen

Philadelphia sits at 8-4 with a 7-3 conference record, and when you look at that side-by-side with the Cowboys, the tiebreaker picture becomes painfully clear.

The Cowboys can’t tie them, they can’t sneak by them on technicalities. The Cowboys have to finish ahead of them in the standings.

Here is the Eagles’ remaining schedule:

• @ Chargers
• vs Raiders
• @ Commanders
• @ Buffalo
• vs Commanders

When I look at this stretch of games, I see opportunities, not guarantees.

Washington always gives Philly at tough game, Buffalo is one of the best in the NFL, and the Chargers are unpredictable.

If the Eagles slip, even a little, it cracks the door for the Cowboys.

But here is the reality all fans have to accept:

√ The Cowboys must win out and finish 10-6-1

√ The Eagles must go 2-3 or worse to finish 10-7

That is the scenario that gets the Cowboys the NFC East title.

And it’s the likeliest scenario that gets the Cowboys into the playoffs.

How Fans Should Feel About That 6%

I know a lot of us fans expected more this season. We thought the defense would be at least middle of the pack to help the offense out in games.

Fans thought the Cowboys would be fighting for playoff seeding, not fighting for their playoff lives.

But here we are, 3-5-1 in the conference, sitting on 6.5 wins, and needing to play perfect football the rest of the way.

We all know the Cowboys have to win out. I mean it was stated earlier, we need Philadelphia to stumble. There is zero margin for error.

No wild-card safety net, no miracle tiebreaker, and no scenario where 9-7-1 sneaks us in.

One thing this fan group has in spades, compared to other fans. Hope, hope is part of who we are, even when the odds aren’t. I’m not giving up, and I know a lot of you aren’t either.

The season isn’t dead, it’s hanging on, but it is hanging on by one of the thinnest threads we have had in years.

At 6%, “You’re saying there’s a chance.”

Until that number hits zero, we ride this out together to the end.