Bears vs. Texans picks, predictions, props, odds, best bets for 'Sunday Night Football'

Sunday Night Football Odds

Sunday, Sept. 15

8:20 p.m. ET

NBC

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Bears-Texans Spread: Bears +6 | Texans -6
• Bears-Texans Over/Under: 45.5 total points
• Bears-Texans Moneyline: Bears +222 | Texans -278

Nick Giffen's Bears-Texans Pick Against the Spread

Bears +6.5 (-110, BetMGM)

By Nick Giffen

In Week 1, everyone and their brother made sure to point out that the Bears failed to score an offensive touchdown and were lucky to win because of two defensive/special teams scores. That’s the prevailing narrative from Caleb Williams’ professional debut, and it is likely is an influencing factor in this line currently sitting at 6.5 points.

This spread was sitting around 3.5 points at kickoff of last week’s games — it has since moved a full field goal toward Houston. However, based off the underlying metrics from Week 1, I think this has moved too far.

Let’s start with the Bears offense.

Yes, they failed to score a TD in Week 1, but seven out of their nine drives (not counting the final drive, which started with a minute left) reached at least midfield. That includes Chicago settling for a field goal after a first-and-goal at the 10-yard line, which had an expectation of 4.4 points.

The Bears offense looks worse than it was thanks to two fluky 4th-and-30 situations they found themselves in, which aren’t high-frequency events.

Houston’s defense, on the other hand, was actually slightly lucky against Indianapolis. From the Week 2 Luck Rankings piece:

"A red-zone interception in the first half was expected, on average, to turn into points for the Colts but didn't, and a fourth-and-1 at the Houston 46 on the opening drive failed to convert. There's an alternate timeline in which the Colts convert that fourth down and don't turn the ball over. Indy also failed its only 2-point conversion attempt, which is rough considering the final 2-point margin at 29-27.”

So even though our Luck Rankings don’t show this as one of the four luck-based matchups, I think public perception is incorrectly skewed and luck was a bigger factor than people realize.

I like the Bears catching 6.5 points on the road thanks to the underlying metrics showing a tighter game than the public realizes.

Pick: Bears +6.5 (-110)

John LanFranca's Bets the Over/Under for Bears-Texans

Under 45.5 (-110, Bet365)

By John LanFranca

Much has been made of Caleb Williams' underwhelming NFL debut, but the Bears offense as a whole played terribly in Week 1.

The Bears were 28th in offensive DVOA, gaining just 13.4 yards per drive. This is a situation where they are going to have to prove to me they are better than the 2.8 yards per play they managed last week, and it will be a tall task considering they couldn't run the ball with success and now will be missing Rome Odunze and possibly Keenan Allen as well.

Allen did not look particularly explosive in his Bears debut, and it's clear his heel is causing him problems even if he does give it a go on Sunday night.

35.7% of all running back carries for Chicago resulted in zero yards or a negative play — that was the highest rate in the league last week. The Bears managed just one explosive play of 15 or more yards, which was also the fewest in the league.

The Bears defense gives me even more confidence in the under.

Picking up where they left off in 2023, Chicago held the Titans to just 4 yards per play. This defense continues to find a way to create havoc, and if it can get near C.J. Stroud with interior pressure, it may be the key to slowing down the Texans offense. Stroud was sacked on 50% of the plays he was pressured in in Week 1 — the highest mark of any quarterback.

Given the Bears' strong defensive form and their putrid offensive performance, this total is a few points too high.

Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)

Brian Matthews's Joe Mixon Player Prop

Joe Mixon Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

By Brian Matthews

Joe Mixon found the fountain of youth in Week 1, carrying the ball 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown. Dameon Pierce only saw three carries as Mixon operated as the clear bell-cow back.

Pierce is also questionable for Sunday Night Football because of a hamstring injury. He logged a limited practice on Thursday but did not practice on Friday.

The Texans enter SNF as 6.5-point favorites. The Bears gave up 82 rushing yards on 16 carries to Tony Pollard last week (5.1 YPC), and this Texans offense is far more effective than the Titans'.

I think it could be another big Mixon game as I have him projected around 80 rushing yards, so I obviously like the 66.5 I'm getting for this prop at the time of writing.

Pick: Joe Mixon Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Grant Neiffer's Caleb Williams Prop

Caleb Williams Over 215.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)

By Grant Neiffer

Caleb Williams looked absolutely terrible in Week 1, but there is no reason to believe that will continue.

The USC product was one of the highest-praised QBs in college and looked good in preseason. He has one of the best receiving corps in the league between Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze — though Allen and Odunze are questionable for this contest.

The Bears, who are 6.5-point underdogs, could be passing early and often in this one considering the Texans having one of the top run defenses in the league.

Williams could crush this number easily, and I'm hitting the ladder.

Pick: Caleb Williams Over 215.5 Passing Yards