Optimism about the Cincinnati Bengals is in short supply at the moment. Instead of signing Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson to new contracts, the prices for all of them have only gone up and one of them is seeking a trade at this very moment.
Surely everything Joe Burrow and Bengals fans wanted to see at the onset of free agency, right?
The Bengals are in a hole right now, and they have over $40 million in salary cap space to get out of it, thought the real ones reading this know only about $30 million of it will actually be used. Here are five predictions about what's in store for Cincinnati's free agency period.
Technically, the Bengals have a hard deadline of July 15 to get this done, but crossing the goal line by the start of tampering has always been the firm deadline for the sake of salary cap clarity. Higgins' second franchise tag is taking up just over $26 million in cap space at the moment. A new deal will likely drop that enough to fit another starter added in free agency.
As of this posting, I'm not confident an agreement will be reached by noon ET, but I do believe there will be an effort made. Not like that's ever given fans any comfort, though.
I think the Bengals hold strong here and wait out other teams in hopes of increasing the demand for Hendrickson. They want to trade Hendrickson only for compensation they deem worthy to relinquish him from their control as he is under contract for the 2025 season. They could probably trade him right now for a late Day 2 pick. But if teams who are interested end up missing out on some of the top options available on the market, it increases their demand and potentially their offer to the Bengals.
The longer Hendrickson stays a Bengal, the more likely his willingness to come back to the negotiating table increases as well, but I still foresee a trade happening eventually. It just may not happen until it can actually be processed following the start of the new league year Wednesday afternoon.
There's a sense that the guard market will be a prosperous one for players and a frightening one for clubs. The sooner teams enter the store and get out with their target, the cheaper it will be. This should be the Bengals' mindset with a glaring need at the position and a weak NFL Draft class on the horizon in April. They can't afford to wait until then and force an early pick if it doesn't make sense, but we have seen that unfold before at other positions.
I think the early release of Alex Cappa sets this up and you'll see a veteran agree to terms by the end of the day, whether that's Patrick Mekari of the Baltimore Ravens or perhaps Will Hernandez of the Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati will go for a proven starter.
While there were some notable moves made by other teams that took away some options here, the Bengals will still have several targets at both defensive end and defensive tackle. They likely need two new veteran starters if Hendrickson is indeed on his way out the door. I expect at least one of those starters to be secured during legal tampering. The other may come in the days afterwards when the market cools down a bit.
Keep an eye on some of the new names to the market. Jonathan Allen and Dre'Mont Jones both make plenty of sense as veterans the Bengals should be interested in, and their markets may be more affordable considering they were just cut.
In a perfect world, the Bengals will look to move on from both Stone and Pratt in the next two months. Both will remain on the team until their respective replacements find their way on the roster. I'm more confident in the team pursuing a veteran linebacker rather than a safety in free agency, but both could happen as well.
Last year, the Bengals signed Zack Moss and immediately traded away Joe Mixon for a seventh-round pick. The same strategy could happen at linebacker as Pratt requested a trade last month. I think Stone's replacement would arrive via the draft, so he's likely safe until then. The same likely applies for Moss as well.
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