Bengals vs. Cowboys Picks, Props, Predictions, Best Bets for Monday Night Football

8:15 p.m. Bengals -5.5 (-105)

8:15 p.m. Over 49.5 (-108)

8:15 p.m. Jalen Tolbert Unders Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Bengals vs. Cowboys Spread Pick

The Cowboys have the least effective home-field advantage in football — they’ve been outscored by more than 100 points on their home turf this season.

Their one good performance in Dallas came on Thanksgiving against a bad Giants team, and they needed a defensive touchdown to turn the tide in their favor. I am not putting much stock into one favorable look and I don’t believe they match up well with the Bengals.

No defense surrenders more yards per attempt through the air when they fail to get pressure than the Cowboys. Joe Burrow averages the fourth-highest yards per attempt league-wide when facing pressure this season, and he has a higher passer rating when facing pressure than he does from a clean pocket — 108 rating versus pressure versus 107 when throwing from a clean pocket.

The Cowboys defense cannot get stops without generating pressure, and this is the one passer in the NFL we know with certainty is not affected by extra defenders coming his way.

When teams have entered the red zone against Dallas, they have cashed their opportunities into touchdowns 30-of-39 times. No defense allows touchdowns at a higher rate inside the most important area of the field.

The Bengals have been a disappointment this season given their expectations, but their schedule has been daunting, losing several close games to playoff-caliber teams.

Cincinnati has only taken on five teams that are not currently in the playoff picture, and in four consecutive games against non-playoff teams, it has won by seven or more points.

This number has been stuck at 5.5 all week, but I am comfortable playing it up to 6.

Pick: Bengals -5.5 (-105); bet to -6

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Bengals vs. Cowboys Over/Under Prediction

Given the way the Bengals have been playing lately, I was surprised to catch this total under 50.

The last four Bengals games have all topped 60 points, including a final total of 82 points last week against the Steelers.

It’s notable that the Bengals have played some solid defenses in that span, but it still hasn’t slowed down their offense. Besides the matchup against Pittsburgh (the No. 6 team in scoring defense this season), they also had a shootout with the Chargers — the top scoring defense in the league.

Dallas is far from that, giving up 28.3 points per game, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the league.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys offense seems to have hit their stride a bit under Cooper Rush. They’ve averaged over 30 points over the last two weeks and should be able to do enough to keep things moving against a bad Bengals defense.

Even if the Cowboys don’t do most of the heavy lifting, they’ll likely keep it close enough that Cincinnati stays aggressive on offense.

Pick: Over 49.5 (-108); bet to -115

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Bengals vs. Cowboys Player Props

From Week 5-11, Jalen Tolbert played at least 80% of snaps in every Cowboys game and 89% or more all but once. Last week against the Giants, he played 72% of offensive snaps.

Why did that happen? Well, Brandin Cooks made his return to action and played 39% of Cowboys snaps. Cooks’ last game was, you guessed it, Week 4 before Tolbert took on a bigger role.

Tolbert has gone under 2.5 receptions in each of his last three games, and he’s stayed under 26.5 receiving yards in five of his last six.

Either market would be a good way to fade Tolbert. Both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon are projecting Tolbert for 21.4 or fewer receiving yards, while Koerner has him pegged for 2.2 receptions and Raybon 2.1.

Pick: Jalen Tolbert Under 2.5 Receptions (-115) & 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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