Best bet on Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams lands as low-hanging fruit

After a fairly rough run for the better part of his first two NFL seasons, Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams had a breakthrough last season. He topped 1,000 yards for the first time, while finishing second in the league in yards per catch (17.3).

The next steps for Williams this season are to become more consistent week-to-week, and completely eliminate all off-field distractions after a couple things surfaced last year.

John Morton replacing Ben Johnson as the Lions' offensive coordinator seemed to be a good thing for Williams right off the bat, and more recently Williams himself confirmed it when he talked about where he feels like a more polished receiver.

"My route running. Coach Johnny Mo (Morton) is letting me run more routes," Williams said. "I knew I could run more routes and he's putting me in position to run more routes. I'm getting better with cuts and angles and how to run this route and that route. I'd say I'm more polished in my route game."

To be fair, Williams' route tree evolved last year. So some of what he said there is natural evolution of his game this year, but Morton's roots as a wide receivers coach also feel notable.

Best bet for Jameson Williams in 2025 feels like a slam dunk

As part of his Lions' preview for 2025, Dalton Wasserman of Pro Football Focus' best bet had to do with Williams.

"Best bet: WR  Jameson Williams to go over 875.5 receiving yards (-114)"

"Williams profiles as one of the most dangerous deep threats in the game, having generated a 91.9 PFF receiving grade on targets 15 or more yards downfield last season. That ability will be on full display with new offensive coordinator John Morton, who was the Broncos' passing game coordinator last season when their offense posted the 13th-highest deep attempt rate (12.6%)."

Via FanDuel Sportbook (as of Aug. 13, odds subject to change), Williams' over/under yardage total for this season is now at 900.5 with the same odds (-114) Wasserman mentioned.

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Williams topped 1,000 yards last season while missing two games, and with some unsustainable deeper numbers related to downfield targets and yards after the catch. Any regression in those latter numbers can easily be offset by further expansion of his route tree, more overall target volume, etc.

Even for a Williams skeptic, the over on any yardage over/under on him for this year that comes in noticeably below what he did last season lands as an easy bet to consider (where it's legal to do so, of course). Over 875.5 yards was/is a slam dunk, such as it can be found anywhere, and over 900.5 yards isn't far behind.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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