Bills vs Broncos Prediction: Can Denver Stop Josh Allen?

There's no Kansas City this time for Buffalo to deal with. There's no Patrick Mahomes, there's no Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, and there's no Joe Burrow and Cincinnati. It's this, and then the winner of New England vs Houston, but getting past the Broncos is tough enough.

Denver hasn't won a playoff game since winning the Super Bowl in the 2015 season. It lost its one appearance since then in the Wild Card round two years ago - to Buffalo.

How To Watch Buffalo vs Denver

Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
Game Time: 4:30 pm ET
TV: CBS
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Why Buffalo Will Win

The Broncos don't make it easy on themselves.

The Chargers didn't play their main guys in the regular season finale. Other than that, Denver doesn't have a win by more than one score since taking out Dallas in late October.

It gets by on clutch late performances, and a "no fly zone" defense that doesn't allow anything deep. But Buffalo couldn't care less about the deep shot. More importantly, its pass defense is better than Denver's.

The Bills are banged up, but the ground game keeps on moving, and it's not just Josh Allen. When they can rumble and control the tempo, everything else falls into place.

Denver might like to come back late, but that's where the Bill attack comes in - it takes the air out of the ball as well as anyone when it's crunch time.

Buffalo is 9-0 when rushing for more than 145 yards or more, and Denver hasn't dealt with too many teams that liked to bash away. However ...

Why Denver Will Win

The Bronco defense is the real deal.

No, it hasn't dealt with a slew of killer offenses - it only faced five teams that made the playoffs, and lost to two of them - but Jonathan Taylor and the Colts were it when it came to getting past 145 yards on the ground.

How did Denver lose this season? It got hit through the air in the three losses, and that's not going to be Buffalo. Allen can certainly hit the third down throws, but he's not going to bomb away for 270 yards - that's what it took to get by the Broncos this year.

And then there's the time off factor. Quibble all you want about how some teams get rusty with the extra week to rest up, but Buffalo is on the other side of that. This is a very, very banged-up team, and it starts with 17.

Overall, the Bills should be fine, including Allen, but the receiving corps doesn't have the parts to throw any sort of scare into the brick wall of a Bronco secondary. This should be a low scoring game with field position at a premium, and ...

Buffalo vs Denver Prediction, Betting Lines

Does this Denver team really have the minerals to hold up in the fourth quarter when things get tight?

It's made a living all year at coming through late. Maybe it's not always in spectacular fashion like Chicago, but there's a confidence that leads to a no-panic style with Bo Nix always coming up large when it's time.

And he'll do it again - but too soon. Buffalo is 13-0 when scoring more than 20 points, 0-5 when it scores that many or fewer.

The Broncos will leave just enough time on the clock for Allen to get his Bills past 20, and once again, show why he's the best player in the NFL.

Buffalo 23, Denver 20
Consensus Line: Denver -1.5, o/u: 45.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.