Buffalo Bills ceiling and floor for 2023

Although the Buffalo Bills once again failed to live up to expectations last season, they still have more than enough talent to contend for a championship in 2023. With the season finally upon us, we're dusting off our earlier guides on the ceilings and floors of each team in the NFL.

Here's what we said about Buffalo back in June. Let's examine what's changed:

Ceiling: 14-3

Buffalo finished 13-3 last season, with each loss decided by a single possession. Quarterback Josh Allen, who led the league in turnovers (19), coughed up the ball at least once in each of those games. Despite having his worst statistical season since 2019, Allen still finished third in MVP voting. Plus, most of his struggles weren't necessarily his fault, as he suffered an elbow injury in Week 9 that forced him to change his throwing motion. 

Assuming the 27-year-old stays healthy and limits his turnovers, it's impossible to say Buffalo's potential is anything less than last season's results. Yes, the division should be more tightly contested, but the Bills will continue to be the team to beat until proven otherwise. 

Not to mention, after averaging the second-most points per game last season (28.4), the Bills have made strides to improve offensively, which should help Allen rebound and elevate the unit as a whole. They bolstered the offensive line by adding a pair of guards, free-agent signing Connor McGovern and second-round pick O'Cyrus Torrence.

However, the most significant addition to the offense is first-rounder Dalton Kincaid, a tight end out of Utah. Although the Bills plan to use Kincaid more as a slot receiver, a role the 6-foot-4, 240-pounder should thrive in after leading all FBS tight ends in receptions a season ago (70) while ranking second in receiving yards (890). 

Floor: 10-7 

Of course, it's possible the Bills could struggle this season, whether it be because of the increased competition in the division or if there are any significant injuries. In fact, Buffalo is already entering the season undermanned, with OLB Von Miller out for at least four games while he recovers from last season's knee injury.

The two-time Super Bowl champion's absence could lead to Buffalo stumbling out of the gate and falling behind in the divisional race. Buffalo faces the Jets and Dolphins in Week 1 and Week 4, respectively, which are teams that split their season series with the Bills in 2022 and have gotten better this offseason.  

The Bills' pass rush was drastically different when Miller was out of the lineup last season. Per ESPN's Alaina Getzenberg, Buffalo's pass rush ranked fifth among teams in pressure percentage with Miller (29.6%) compared to 22nd without him (25.1%). Additionally, Miller still tied the team lead in sacks (eight) even though he played in just 11 games.