Carolina Looks to Send Strong Message to Rest of NFL

BetMGM released their season win totals for the upcoming 2025 NFL season and the usual suspects sit at the top. The Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles are tied for the most at 11.5 wins followed by the Lions and 49ers at 10.5. The Carolina Panthers, coming off a 5-12 season are predicted by Las Vegas to improve slightly this year, with an over/under of 6.5 wins. After an offseason full of hope with high grades on their free agent signings and draft, fans are hoping the Panthers can be closer to .500, perhaps even contend for the post season.

So how do they hit the over on that 6.5 number? Let’s go game by game.

Week 1 @ Jaguars. Vegas has the Jags as a 7.5 win team this year so assuming everyone is healthy, the Panthers will not be favored to win but it’s a game they need to have for a playoff run. The Jaguars only won 4 games last year but after drafting 2-way star Travis Hunter, they’re hoping for bigger things from Trevor Lawrence. Let’s assume the Panthers beat what will likely be a 3.5 line and pull the upset, 1-0.

Week 2 @ Cardinals. Arizona is projected for 8.5 wins so this will be an even tougher test. Likely a 4.5 point underdog, the Panthers will need to be great on the road once again to get to 2-0, but after having a successful offseason themselves let’s say the Cardinals hold on and the Panthers split the first 2 road games of the year and come home 1-1.

Week 3 vs Falcons. Vegas has the Falcons as a 7.5 win team so I’m betting this will be the first game the Panthers are favored and let’s assume they win this one to put them at 2-1.

Week 4 @ Patriots. New England has an 8.5 o/u and is looking to build on the promise Drake Maye showed as a rookie, but like the Jags they’re coming off a 4-win season so if the Panthers are going to take that next step this will be a game they need to have, 3-1.

Week 5 vs Dolphins. Miami also has an 8.5 number but as we know this team rides on the health of Tua Tagovailoa. If he’s on the field and the Dolphins offense is rolling this will be a tough one for the Panthers, let’s give them the loss and put them at 3-2.

Week 6 vs Cowboys. Dallas is only a 7.5 win team in the eyes of Las Vegas, despite the recent trade for George Pickens. This would be a huge early season W for the Panthers and put them in a good spot to make a run, 4-2.

Week 7 @ Jets. New York chose Justin Fields over Aaron Rodgers this offseason and Vegas doesn’t see much success with an o/u at 5.5. The Panthers pull out another road win and find themselves at 5-2.

Week 8 & 9 vs Bills and @ Packers. It’s a good thing the Panthers have built up some wins on the year because it’s likely they drop these 2. I think the Panthers will give Green Bay a great game but on the road I think they lose 2 in a row, putting them at 5-4.

Week 10 is a home game vs the Saints to stop the skid, Panthers are 6-4.

Week 11 is the Falcons on the road and since I gave the Panthers the home win, I’ll do the same for Atlanta and the Panthers fall to 6-5.

Week 12 is MNF on the road vs the 49ers and assuming they drop that one and the following week at home to the Rams (9.5 o/v), the Panthers find themselves on the cusp of elimination at 6-7.

The last quarter of the season are all winnable games however, and after a much-needed week 14 bye, the Saints appear on the schedule at the best possible time again, putting the Panthers back to .500 at 7-7, and beating the 6.5 over on the year with 3 games remaining on the schedule.

Week 16 vs Buccaneers. Vegas is giving Tampa 9.5 wins this year so in order to make the postseason the Panthers will likely have to upset them at least once, I’m just not sure they’re ready to steal the division quite yet, 7-8.

Week 17 vs Seahawks. Seattle and new QB Sam Darnold are seen as a 7.5 win team so this is another game the Panthers should be a slight home favorite, and let’s say they hang on and move to 8-8.

Week 18 is the Bucs again, this time in Tampa and I think they lose again, falling to 8-9 and just short of the playoffs.

It might feel like a disappointment if they end up a game or 2 short of the playoffs, but even this hypothetical 8-9 record involved 3 upsets (@ Jags, @ Pats, vs Cowboys) so you can easily see a path to them winning closer to the Vegas number.

The Panthers played in several close games down the stretch in 2024, and will likely again in ’25. If they can win a few more and beat the Vegas number I’d argue that would be a successful season and only add to the confidence in what head coach Dave Canales and general manager Dan Morgan are building in Carolina.

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