Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh (hc) during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Chargers given surprising playoff odds by analytics experts

Originally posted on Los Angeles Chargers on SI
By Richie Whitt | Last updated Sep 3, 2025 9:30 AM ET

The good news: the Los Angeles Chargers have the sixth-best odds in the AFC to make this season's playoffs.

The bad news: two of the other top seven teams play in their AFC West division.

According to the analytics experts over at Pro Football Focus, if the Chargers are going to make the playoffs they'll likely have to contend with - of course - the Kansas City Chiefs and - surprise - the Denver Broncos. PFF says the Chargers have a 51-percent chance to make the postseason, sixth in the AFC. Their chances are better than the Broncos (47 percent), but worse than the nine-time division champion Chiefs (71 percent).

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Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have the best playoff odds at 81 percent, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (77 percent), Chiefs, Houston Texans (54 percent) and Cincinnati Bengals (52 percent).

It seems unlikely that three teams from the same division will make the playoffs, but that's exactly what happened in 2024 when the 15-2 Chiefs, 11-6 Chargers and 10-7 Broncos all made it.

The difficult math - and the fact they're facing Patrick Mahomes - makes Friday's season-opener against the Chiefs in Brazil that much more vital. Head coach Jim Harbaugh's team lost two tough games to K.C. last season by the scores of 17-10 and 19-17.