Chicago Bears roster is middle of the pack in this NFL projection model

Austin Mock of The Athletic wrote an article with his NFL Projection Model. The model helped rank all the rosters following the NFL draft and ranked them on a few different factors. Despite being a playoff team in 2025, the Bears are considered to be in 17th place between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Minnesota Vikings. Below is the snippet he wrote regarding the Bears’ roster right now:

“The Bears‘ magical run last season was a bit of fool’s gold, but I still might be higher than most on Caleb Williams’ fit in Ben Johnson’s offense. However, Williams needs to find more down-to-down consistency. Colston Loveland’s emergence should help on that front, but Chicago’s running backs and wide receivers are somewhat unproven. The offensive line should be solid, so it’s up to Williams and his receivers to move forward. On the other side of the ball, it’s all bad. The defensive line, the secondary – they all grade out poorly in my model.”

The projection model that Mock uses takes into account a few different factors. It is expressed by how many points better or worse each team is considered than the average NFL roster. Chicago’s roster has a +0.5 xMOV (expected margin of victory). The team was able to shift around a lot of their roster this offseason, seemingly revamping the defense.  Offensively, the team lost starting center Drew Dalman to retirement, and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo is recovering from his injury. Chicago’s draft class has gotten mixed reviews and they still have a hole they seemingly need to address at edge rusher.

The Bears are looking to be a lot more dominant in 2026 after having to rely on some magical moments to win games last season. Year 2 of coach Johnson’s tenure could help Chicago look a lot better as a whole. They added some strong depth to positions like left tackle and safety this offseason, so it will be intriguing to see how the Bears play out in 2026.