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Colts' Ceiling and Floor, Entering 2026

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Sahil Goswami | Last updated Sep 10, 2026 10:26 AM ET

The Indianapolis Colts showed two faces in 2025. They opened the year 8-2, looking like a legitimate AFC contender, but collapsed to 8-9 and missed the playoffs. That makes 2026 a defining season for Shane Steichen, Chris Ballard and the roster.

Daniel Jones returns as the Colts’ QB1 after his 2025 season ended with a torn Achilles. Before the injury, he had thrown for 3,101 yards, ranking seventh in the NFL at the time, while his 8.1 yards per attempt ranked fifth. He also brings mobility that fits Steichen’s offense. The Colts depth chart confirms him as the starter, with Anthony Richardson Sr. and Riley Leonard behind him.

ESPN projections give the Colts a 39.2% chance to make the playoffs, and a 22% chance to win the division. Although the roster gives Jones enough firepower to make the season interesting, but staying healthy will be just as important as talent.

The Colts’ Ceiling

The offense is where Indianapolis can make their biggest jump. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,585 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025 and now has a long-term extension. Tyler Warren caught 76 passes for 817 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. Add Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen, and Steichen has plenty of pieces to move the ball. Allen also gives Jones a veteran target who has already worked with Steichen earlier in his career.

Pierce missed the entire preseason while recovering from ankle surgery, but he returned to practice this week and is expected to play Sunday. He is coming off the best season of his career, with 47 catches for 1,003 yards and six touchdowns in 2025. CB Sauce Gardner gives the defense a true difference-maker. He played only 196 snaps for the Colts after the 2025 trade, so 2026 is the first chance to see what he can do over a full season in Indy’s defense.

Most importantly, the team needs to sustain the level they showed early last season. A healthy Jones, Taylor’s rushing attack, a deeper receiving group and Gardner anchoring the secondary give them a path to the AFC South title.

The Colts’ Floor

Indianapolis lost several important pass-rush pieces from last season and is counting on players such as Laiatu Latu, Arden Key and second-year edge rusher Jaylahn Tuimoloau to fill the void. Jones says he is ready yet his Achilles recovery remains an important storyline.

Indianapolis cannot afford another late-season collapse. An 8-2 start became an 8-9 finish, turning what looked like a playoff season into another offseason of questions. Pierce is returning from surgery, while rookie safety A.J. Haulcy is dealing with an ankle injury. Haulcy was limited in practice this week and could miss his NFL debut, with Hunter Wohler waiting behind him.

The Colts have to show they can close games, handle pressure and stay competitive once the schedule gets tougher.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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