Colts' Jonathan Taylor Has Betting Lines Worth Your Time

After putting pen to paper, Taylor reminded everyone in 2024 why he remains one of the league’s elite running backs. In his 13 starts last season, he piled up 1,431 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 303 carries.

That workload amounted to 21.6 attempts per game — the highest usage rate of his career — even topping his monster 2021 season, when he earned unanimous First-Team All-Pro honors and eclipsed 2,000 all-purpose yards. 2021 and 2024 are the only years he’s cleared 300 carries — and both show his production hasn’t fallen off one bit under heavy usage.

Looking specifically at his 1,200.5-yard rushing prop, the math speaks volumes. Across a 17-game season, Taylor would only need to average 70.6 yards per game. He hasn’t averaged fewer than 74.1 yards per game in any season of his career, even in his injury-shortened 2023 campaign.

Furthermore, last year he averaged 102.2 yards per game — around 30 yards above the pace he would need to hit the over. To put it in perspective, Taylor ran for 1,272 yards after contact in 2021 alone, a figure that would clear this year’s line by itself. Colts fans have seen this version of Taylor before, and if it shows up again in 2025, he’ll blow through 1,200 yards by December.

Momentum also matters. Over the Colts’ final three games of 2024, Shane Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter leaned heavily on their star back — and Taylor delivered. He finished that stretch with 95 carries, 520 yards, and five touchdowns.

That comes out to 32 carries, 173 yards, and 1.6 touchdowns per game, production that few backs in the league could dream of sustaining. With rookie DJ Giddens available to take some early-down snaps and keep him fresh, Taylor should have the legs to dominate short-yardage and goal-line packages throughout the season.

Taylor’s +9.5 touchdown line (-102) is my favorite Colts future of the year. Despite going through a six-game stretch in the middle of last season without finding the end zone once, Taylor still finished with 11 total scores in just 13 starts.

History shows he can score in bunches: he has 12 career games with two or more touchdowns, including outings with three, four, and even five total scores. Add in his underrated pass-catching ability, and you’re looking at a player who can reach the end zone multiple ways. Given that he is the
unquestioned goal-line back in Indianapolis, 10 touchdowns across 17 games, feels not only reasonable but conservative.

Situationally, Taylor is set up to thrive. His running style takes full advantage of the Colts’ interior offensive line, which has long been the strength of the unit. The group does feature some new starters heading into 2025, but Taylor is the type of back who makes run blocking easier for those around him.

Consider the interior blocking he’ll run behind this season. Tanor Bortolini takes over as the starting center. In the five games Taylor and Bortolini started together in 2024, Taylor totaled 512 yards and four touchdowns (via Pro Football Focus) — proving that he’s already comfortable behind the new setup.

At left guard, Quenton Nelson, a four-time All-Pro, is still at the peak of his game. With Nelson paving the way and Bortolini developing quickly, the Colts’ trenches should give Taylor plenty of daylight.

Here’s why this works schematically: last season, 41 percent of Taylor’s carries came through the ML and MR gaps — essentially right off the hips of Bortolini and Nelson (via PFF charting). Nelson, in particular, was dominant, averaging an 87.7 zone run-block grade throughout the season.

The strategy for 2025 is clear: run the ball 25–30 times a game behind Nelson and let Taylor do the rest. With that blocking in front of him, Taylor is set up perfectly to exploit the middle lanes where he’s most dangerous.

The quarterback situation also deserves mention. Daniel Jones was named the starter during the preseason, and while he remains a polarizing figure among fans, his mobility is a real asset in the RPO and play-action game.

That’s the same dynamic that helped Taylor thrive alongside Anthony Richardson Sr.’s run threat last year. When Jones had stability in New York, he played well enough to earn a contract extension.

Let’s look at Jones’ situation in New York: the comparison to Saquon Barkley’s 2022 season with Jones under center is compelling. Barkley finished that year with 295 carries, 1,312 yards, and 10 touchdowns across 16 games (via Pro Football Reference).

Taylor, by comparison, logged 303 carries, 1,431 yards, and 11 touchdowns in just 13 games last season. With a similar gap distribution, similar usage rate, and a far better supporting cast around him, the Colts’ star back is in a stronger situation than Barkley was three years ago.

On the other side of the ball, new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has retooled the Colts' defense. With a deeper secondary and a top-five-level defensive line, Indianapolis should be able to win the time-of-possession battle and dictate pace. That formula feeds directly into Taylor’s workload, as more sustained drives mean more opportunities for him to wear defenses down.

To sum it up, the numbers, usage, and situation all align. The 1,200.5-yard line is below what Taylor typically produces in a healthy 300-carry season, and the 9.5-touchdown line is essentially even money on a benchmark he’s already cleared despite missing time.

With his health, usage, and supporting cast all working in his favor, these overs look like some of the best long-term value on the board.

Taylor’s track record, situation, and workload all point toward another heavy-production season. Vegas has undervalued one of the league’s most reliable workhorses. If you’re looking for a futures ticket that offers maximum predictability, Taylor’s overs deserve a spot in your portfolio before these numbers climb.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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