Colts' Limited Offense Reveals Clear Betting Value vs. 49ers

To begin, I just don’t see a world where the Colts consistently generate offense with Philip Rivers at the helm. Expect Indianapolis to try to drag San Francisco into muddy waters, turning this game into a time-of-possession grind and a true war of attrition.

With that in mind, we’re looking at some unconventional props for this Colts offense.

I absolutely love Colts Kicker Blake Grupe Over 1.5 made field goals (-137). Grupe drilled three field goals last game, and I fully expect the Colts’ inability to find the end zone to continue. That should lead to Grupe cleaning up a couple of stalled red-zone possessions.

Grupe has hit 19 field goals over his last 10 outings and is primed to clear his 1.5 line at Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday night.

That is the perfect segue into our next play: Over 3.5 combined field goals made between the two teams (-105). Grupe and Piñeiro have combined for 11 total field goals over the last two games, and this matchup aligns with a slow, methodical script driven by field-goal attempts.

Next, we’re looking at Colts QB Philip Rivers’ longest pass Under 27.5 yards (-110). His longest completion last game was 17 yards, and if you watched him attempt to push the ball downfield, you would likely agree that 27.5 feels close to physically impossible.

I could see a screen or short underneath route breaking off, but I’m comfortable with this number staying under 28.

Now, let’s pivot to some San Francisco props.

There is value in 49ers QB Brock Purdy Over 9.5 rushing yards (-110). He has hit this line in 16 of his last 20 games and logged 44 rushing yards last week against Tennessee.

For our final prop, we’re targeting 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey Over 38.5 receiving yards (-113). The Indianapolis linebacking core simply is not good in coverage, and that mismatch should show up consistently throughout the night.

McCaffrey has cleared 38.5 receiving yards in 12 of 14 games this season. That screams value.

Everything about this matchup points toward a conservative game flow marked by limited explosiveness and stalled possessions. That kind of environment shifts value toward kickers and reliable short-area volume.

If the Colts stick to their plan of shortening the game and avoiding mistakes, these bets align cleanly with both teams’ tendencies. It may not be pretty football, but from a betting standpoint, the board offers clear opportunities.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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