Colts vs. Rams Best Bets | Back Pittman, Trust Shrader

The Rams open as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Colts, and there’s good reason for it. Los Angeles is carrying a bitter taste after last week’s loss to Philadelphia, which ended on a blocked field goal that Jordan Davis returned more than 60 yards for a touchdown.

After a finish like that, expect the Rams to come out firing.

This Rams defense ranks sixth in rush defense and fourth in pass coverage. After three weeks of domination by this Colts rushing attack, I expect LA to load the box against Jonathan Taylor and dare Daniel Jones to beat them with his arm.

These passing opportunities for Jones make Michael Pittman Jr.’s over 49.5 receiving yards (-110) especially attractive. Pittman has cleared this mark in four of his last five games, and with Alec Pierce sidelined, his target share should climb even higher.

Moving the ball is one thing— finishing drives against this defense is another. Ranking near the top of the league, this LA unit creates plenty of stalled possessions in scoring range.

That sets up Spencer Shrader over 1.5 field goals (-115) as my favorite play of the week. Shrader has hit this number in five of his last six games and has not missed that line this season. 

The second-year kicker has shown poise, and in a game where touchdowns may be tough to come by, he should get multiple attempts.

I’m also backing Shrader over 6.5 kicking points (-110), which accounts for both field goals and extra points. Shrader has 11+ kicking points in each of his last four games and has hit that 6.5 mark in every game this season. 

Now let’s get into Sean McVay’s offensive mindset heading into Week 4 against Indianapolis.

The Rams boast the NFL’s second-ranked passing attack, while the Colts sit at 29th in pass-rush grade. Add in injuries to key defensive backs such as Kenny Moore II and Jaylon Jones, and it’s clear: if Indianapolis can’t generate pressure, Matthew Stafford will have time to pick them apart.

That makes Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150) one of the cleanest bets on the board. The veteran quarterback has cleared this line in four of his last five games and shows no signs of slowing down.

In the end, the Colts’ ability to make Stafford uncomfortable may ultimately decide this game.

For our last best bet, we’ll focus on the balanced offensive attack of LA. For all their passing prowess, Los Angeles still leans on Kyren Williams in the run game, and he’s quietly become one of the league’s most consistent backs.

Against a Colts defense ranked 16th against the run and 21st in tackling, Williams has a favorable matchup. That makes Kyren Williams over 70.5 rushing yards (-115) a valuable play to round out the card.

Williams has cleared this number in 70% of his last 20 games and posted 103 rushing yards the last time he faced Indianapolis in 2023. That kind of consistency is hard to ignore.

The path feels clear in this matchup. When Los Angeles sells out to stop the run, Pittman becomes the outlet. When Indy stalls, Shrader cleans up.

On the other side— Stafford and Williams have the matchups to do damage. If the past three weeks are any indication, the numbers line up for another profitable Sunday.

Good luck and bet responsibly.

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