Commanders' winless preseason means nothing (and the numbers prove it)

The Washington Commanders didn't exactly excel during the preseason. But history suggests there is no reason for fans to get overly concerned.

For a team looking to prove its stunning run to the NFC Championship game last winter was no fluke, it's less than ideal. Critics have loudly speculated all offseason that the Commanders are due for regression in 2025, and their preseason performance has validated that.

It's also only preseason. What happens in August correlates very little with what happens between September and December, and ideally for Washington, in January and February. The trends regarding the Commanders' recent preseasons back it up: this means nothing.

Commanders' preseason history has been utterly random as a predictor of success

Last year, Washington won only one of its three preseason games. The team lost 17-20 to the New York Jets and 6-13 to the Miami Dolphins before beating the New England Patriots 20-10. It was far from the type of performance that would have suggested the Commanders were about to go 12-5 and win two road playoff games.

But the real proof of the preseason's meaninglessness was in 2023.

Riding the positive vibes from the offseason ousting of Dan Snyder and subsequent purchase of the franchise by Josh Harris, Washington won all three of its preseason games. Most notably, the Commanders defeated the Baltimore Ravens 29-28 in their second outing, ending what had been a 24-game warmup win streak for their opponent.

Then, after starting the regular season 2-0, Washington won only two of its final 15 games to finish 4-13. The team and coaching staff, for lack of a better choice of words, quit. Lethargic energy and undisciplined play were a common theme throughout a campaign that seemed like everybody was just waiting for it to be over.

The last time the Commanders went winless in the preseason was the year before that. This would end up being the only time during Ron Rivera's tenure that Washington reached a record of .500, finishing 8-8-1. For much of that season, the team was in a position to make the playoffs.

Case in point, it's hard to take anything away from the Commanders' preseason woes, other than that they can't afford to have to rely much on their depth this year. They'll also have to hope that the key starters who didn't get many (or any) snaps are conditioned well enough to step in and produce at a high level from the get-go.

But at the end of the day, preseason is preseason. It's about solidifying the roster, not winning.

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