Contributions To Thin 2026 NFL Draft Class

The parameters of the draft are set; 32 picks in each of the first two rounds, 252-62 picks total, depending on compensatory outcomes. Players will have definitive statuses dependent on where they fall ranging from first-round pick to undrafted free agent. When evaluating prospects, though, NFL front offices tend to use similar classifications that don’t necessarily align with the stricter labels of the draft. That’s why there’s a difference in draft discussions between first-round grades and first-round picks and between draftable and drafted players.

Per Volin, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta reported that their personnel department has draftable grades on 197 players. Chiefs GM Brett Veach reported 215 on his team’s board, while Jason Licht, the Buccaneers GM, limited his team’s figure to 150. On a smaller scale, DeCosta told the media that after “the first round, there’s definitely a drop off probably midway through the round, in terms of talent.” That’s generally how a draft can be considered thin.

Luckily for Baltimore, they have the 14th pick — just inside the first half of the first round. If they were to trade back to, say, the 28th overall pick in the draft, though, they would still take a first-round player, it would just be unlikely that player would fall with their list of 16 or so players with a first-round grade. Similarly, the Buccaneers have three draft picks that come after 150 players have been selected. There’s a chance all 150 of Licht’s draftable players could be gone by then, but the team would still have to either use or trade those picks that must be made.

We’ve talked a bit before of Pro Football Rumors about the impact of the NCAA’s Name, Image, and Likeness rules on the makeup of recent draft classes. Frequently, in prior years, some underclassmen would have a strong performance, and even though they’d been told they didn’t have a very high draft stock, they would still declare for the draft against advice. Some players were worried about potential injury preventing them from ever reaching the league. Some believed they had already reached their ceiling and that it was their best chance to go pro.

NIL has virtually eliminated those concerns. Because players can make NIL money in college, they are much more willing to risk injury with extended time in the NFL, and NIL has even made it advantageous in some situations for players to make the most of their eligibility and stay in school as long as they can. This concept has taken several underclassmen out of recent draft classes as they pursue improved draft stock while still getting paid at the collegiate level. Volin points out that this year’s class has only 42 underclassmen, compared to 69 three years ago and 106 in 2018.

This year’s class has also seen more older prospect, with multiple 25-year-old players set to hear their names over the first two days of the draft. Some of this is still due, in part, to the extra year of eligibility granted to players enrolled in college during the 2020 COVID-affected season, but even without that extra year moving forward, it’s become common for players to wring every last bit of eligibility they can from the NCAA before going to the NFL as complete of a prospect as they can.

The thin level of top-end talent could also result in position runs, which we’ve seen rumors of already. Whereas trades usually take place for quarterbacks and pass rushers, opposite situations of too few or many usable options make it unlikely that teams will trade up for those positions. At offensive tackle, though, there aren’t any prospects considered to be especially elite, but there are a few top tier options and several more less certain prospects who still have the potential to be Day 1 starters. As a result, a run of offensive tackles in the early first round is expected to take place as team’s jockey to trade up to acquire the options with the most promise and least risk.

Trades like these should help some teams in the back of the first round as offensive tackles without first-round grades move ahead and push some of the few players with first-round grades back to those who maybe didn’t expect them to fall that far. It will be interesting to see what other effects the general lack of elite prospects and late-round depth have on the decision-making process of each NFL team.